No one besides us pathological Vermont Political Observers will have noticed, but July 1 was not just Bobby Bonilla Day, it was also a milestone in the 2026 gubernatorial campaign: the only campaign finance filing deadline in the year 2025. In fact, the next deadline isn’t until March 15, 2026 — not much more than two months shy of the filing deadline for major party candidates. But then, we do love our myth that nobody runs for office until June of an election year.

In other words, it’s going to get late early. Which makes it especially disappointing for campaign finance sickos (raises hand with pride) that Tuesday’s deadline produced no hints whatsoever about the race for governor in 2026.

Going into the day, I was expecting that Treasurer Mike Pieciak might report a decent-sized pile, like in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, if only to pre-empt a potential flood of Democratic candidates and an unpredictable dogpile primary á la 2010, when Jim Douglas was retiring and an entire generation of Democrats entered the race. Well, five Democrats, anyway. Four of ’em finished within four percentage points of each other, and Peter Shumlin won (by two-tenths of a percent over Doug Racine) with less than one-quarter of the vote. And we all know how that turned out (cough) EB-5, single payer health care, Scott Milne (cough).

I’m allowing myself a little historical tangent because it’s much more interesting than the great big nothing we got in Tuesday’s filings. The details follow. If you like disappointment, read on.

Pieciak did not hit six figures, nor did he come close. In fact, he departed July 1 with less money in the bank than he had after the end of the 2024 campaign. He raised a not-so-grand total of $17, 641 while managing to spend $39,102, so he reported a net negative of $21,461. He’d ended his noncompetitive re-election campaign for treasurer with almost $206,000 in cash on hand, so he’s not selling pencils on the streetcorner or anything, but the Pieciak Train is still idling at the station.

Or maybe it’s in long-term storage. His campaign finance report doesn’t mean he’s not running for governor next year, but there’s no evidence that he is. When Howard Dean briefly dallied with a run for governor in 2024, he said a serious challenge to Phil Scott would require a $2 million bankroll at minimum. So either Pieciak believes he can raise that much without a head start, or he’s not running. Or he’s pulling a Hamlet act.

Wait. There is one indication that Pieciak is thinking beyond a third coronation as treasurer. Nearly half of his total expenditures — $17,168 to be precise — went to Silver Strategies, the consultancy of the very skilled political operative Natalie Silver. When Silver changed horses (from U.S. Rep. Becca Balint to Pieciak) after the November election, I wrote that I could only interpret the move as a sign that Pieciak was serious about running for governor. That remains true. He’s been paying Silver close to $3,000 a month, which is kind of a lot if his big plan is to run for treasurer again. For Silver, it’s a nice paycheck but not a satisfying challenge.

I can’t tell you how to read this collection of tea leaves. The most likely scenario is that Pieciak hasn’t made up his mind yet and believes there’s still time to dither. And there is, but I was hoping for a more concrete sign of intent in his latest filing.

As for the governor, who likes to pretend he doesn’t decide about seeking re-election until late spring of an election year, his campaign finance report bore a striking resemblance to Pieciak’s. He departed his 2024 walkover with $218,729 in the bank. Since then, he has raised a paltry $1,725 and spent $16,375, which leaves him with $204,000 in cash on hand. No sign that he’s running, and no sign that he sees a serious challenge on the horizon if he does run. In short, business as usual.

Scott’s biggest expenditure, by the way, was a $5,000 donation to the Vermont State Republican Committee. Remember when Scott kept his distance from a VTGOP full of extremists? Not any more.

Pieciak’s fellow Democratic statewides, who are believed to harbor ambitions for higher office, also produced uninspiring campaign finance reports. Attorney General Charity Clark ended 2024 with slightly less than $80,000 on hand. She raised a creditable $34,621 since then and spent a bit more than $16,000, leaving her with $98,000 in the ol’ war chest. A nice figure if you’re running for re-election, but not much of a springboard for a run for governor.

Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas is the poor relation of the group. She ended the 2024 campaign with less than $18,000 on hand, has raised nothing since, and spent close to $6,000. Which leaves her with less than $12,000 in the bank.

Tangential to this essay but worthy of note: Lt. Gov. John Rodgers, whose 2024 campaign finance filings were riddled with “major errors,” failed to file the required July 1 report on time. Oopsie.

That’s about it. Nothing much to see here. It’s a shame that the next deadline is eight and a half months away. I think there ought to be a mandatory report earlier in the year, maybe in mid-January. And if the Legislature were to balk at adding yet another filing requirement, I’d suggest swapping out one of the late-stage deadlines. Candidates are required to file three separate reports in October alone — on the first, 15th and 30th. I’d suggest eliminating the 15th and shifting the end-of-month deadline to something like the 25th. Make the homestretch a bit less frantic for candidates and campaigns, and give us an earlier indication of who might be running for what. Just a thought.