It’s still kind of early on Election Night, but I can’t stand watching the national seesaw and the trends in Vermont seem awfully clear. It’s a great night for Gov. Phil Scott and pretty much a disaster for the Democrats.

And Progressives, who are on the verge of losing their most prominent political figure. Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman has been running narrowly but consistently behind former state senator John Rodgers since the polls closed.

But that race pales in importance to the outcome in the House and Senate, where the Dem/Prog supermajorities are bound for the dustbin of history. Republicans are on track to flip at least five Senate seats, so the Dem/Prog caucus is likely to be a couple votes or more shy of a the 20 needed to override a gubernatorial veto. I haven’t done a count in the House, but it sure looks like the Republicans will win enough seats to knock the Dem/Prog majority below the two-thirds mark.

The next biennium will be a whole new ballgame. There will be no more veto overrides. Legislative leaders will have to try to find common ground with the governor if we’re going to take action of any sort on the many challenges we face.

So, why did this happen, and what does it say about Vermont politics moving forward? And why didn’t I see it coming?

I’ll tackle the last one first. Throughout the Phil Scott era, Vermont voters have gone to the polls every two years and voted for Scott while steadfastly supporting Democrats everywhere else on the ballot. This is the first election where Governor Scott was able to influence any contest besides his own. He’s tried before, and it hasn’t worked. Silly me, I thought this rock-solid trend would continue.

Which ignores one of the inescapable truths of politics: If you keep on winning long enough, you get lazy. You lose political muscle tone. The pendulum may seem destined to keep swinging in one direction, but sooner or later it’s heading back.

The damage even extended to the four statewide offices with established Democratic incumbents facing token Republican opposition. Two years ago, Treasurer Mike Pieciak, Attorney General Charity Clark, Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas, and Auditor Doug Hoffer each took between 65% and 65.6% of the vote. As of this writing, with 89% of towns and cities reporting, their totals range from Clark at 54.3% to Pieciak with 56.4%. Those are substantial, and very consistent, losses.

Why did it happen now? The obvious answer is legislative overreach, particularly on affordability issues. The governor hammered the Dems on property (and other) taxes, insufficient action on our housing crisis, and their alleged failure to “come to the table” and work with him. I still say the failure is at least as much his as theirs, but that and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee. He made his case and he won the argument.

Aside from losing the power to enact policy despite the chief executive, I’m sure the election results will strike fear into Democratic hearts. They will feel a strong pull toward the center. For example, I think the Clean Heat Standard is probably toast, and the clearest path forward on climate action will be the expected lawsuit by the Conservation Law Foundation should the state fail to meet the 2025 emissions targets in the Global Warming Solutions Act. And if the Progressives thought they could influence the Dems in their direction, well, they’ve got another think coming.

During the campaign I wrote extensively about big Republican money in key races — six Senate contests plus Zuckerman/Rodgers. The money sure helped the Republicans, but there’s more to it than that. Democratic Rep. Katherine Sims out-fundraised Republican Samuel Douglass in the Orleans Senate district, and she fared no better than Democratic Senate candidates who faced Republicans with bigger war chests.

It’s possible to draw parallels with the seismic Vermont election of ten years ago, when seemingly unbeatable governor Peter Shumlin narrowly escaped defeat and saw his political career effectively come to an end. His main problem was hubris, and there’s been no shortage of that commodity in Democratic circles this year. They didn’t see this coming, which means they’re out of touch with the voting public. That’s something they will have to deal with between now and the next campaign season.

And it’ll be an uphill battle to reclaim what they’ve lost. Over the last few cycles, they’d made deeper and deeper inroads into purple territory, taking seats that used to be safe Republican. Now they’ll have to claw back that unfriendly turf with no assurance of success — and in the process, they’re likely to be (say it again) pulled toward the center.

The Senate will be tougher than the House because incumbency is such a tremendous advantage in the senior chamber. The Republican gains of 2024 will be extremely difficult for the Dems to win back. Indeed, tonight’s results are strong evidence that the districts long represented by entrenched moderate Democrats (Caledonia, Orleans, Grand Isle, etc.) have become Republican territory, the transition masked until now by the voters’ satisfaction with familiar incumbents.

You know who looks awfully damn smart right now? Independent Rep. Laura Sibilia, who launched a seemingly symbolic candidacy for House Speaker two weeks ago. Before tonight, it would have been easy for current House leadership to dismiss her concerns about top-down leadership. Now, her call for “improved communication, collaboration and nonpartisan problem-solving” seems downright prophetic. At least two members of Speaker Jill Krowinski’s leadership team, Reps. Mike McCarthy and William Notte, have gotten walloped at the polls. There will have to be a dramatic reshuffle at the top, and it’s hard to imagine House leadership ignoring Sibilia and her allies. It’d be a mistake to do so after tonight’s thorough rebuke of the Legislature.

Like 2014, this year’s results represent a real turn of the page. There will be a new balance of power in Montpelier, and the shift is all in Phil Scott’s direction. He will have the upper hand. We shall see how he puts it to use.