Political surprise of the week: This guy taking on an incumbent statewide officeholder.

Guy in question is Thomas Renner, deputy mayor of Winooski and newly declared candidate for lieutenant governor. You know, the office currently occupied by David Zuckerman? Yep, that one.

My initial reaction involved the letters W, T, and F. I mean, he’s 34, he’s held office in the ‘Ski for only three years, has never run anywhere else, and he’s getting a late start. The primary is on August 13, but early voting will begin in about six weeks.

Zuckerman, meanwhile, is arguably Vermont’s most successful state-level politician this side of Phil Scott, having served three terms as LG and a total of 18 years before that in the Legislature. The only blot on his escutcheon: a 2020 thumping at the hands of the governor. But losing to Scott is no shame, and he made a nice comeback two years later by retaking the lieutenant governorship.

But there are reasons not to dismiss Mr. Renner out of hand.

The most salient part of his resumé is not his electoral history, but his work with Vermont’s Congressional delegation. He’s spent the bulk of his (brief) adult life working for then-senator Pat Leahy and U.S. Rep. Becca Balint. (He’s now on leave from Balint’s office.) Those are credentials to be taken very seriously. People who serve our Congresscritters have plenty of connections to power centers here and in D.C. Renner’s credibility stems more from his Leahy and Balint ties than his brief-ish tenure on a city council.

Then there’s the Zuckerman side of the equation. Yes, he’s a winner. Yes, he has high name recognition. If I were him, I’d feel pretty darn confident about winning the Democratic nomination as well as the Progressive. However…

In his 2022 comeback, Zuckerman won the Democratic primary with a plurality. He took less than 42% of the vote while three regular Democrats split the remainder. It’s not a stretch to believe that if former state rep Kitty Toll, who finished second with 37%, had had the Democratic lane to herself, she would have won the race. You can see how that could cause hope to spring in the heart of an ambitious young Democrat. That, and the underlying fact revealed in the primary result: a widespread animus among mainstream Dems toward Zuckerman, who identifies first and foremost as a Prog.

Still, Renner has a ton of work to do in very little time. He’ll need all the connections he doubtless thinks he has. He’ll need the active support of the people he’s gotten to know through his time with Leahy and Balint. He’ll need money, and he’ll need it fast.

(On the other hand, Zuckerman isn’t exactly swimming in cash. His campaign has about $20,000 in cash on hand. His latest campaign finance filing has the look of an organization that wasn’t expecting to be primaried.)

Which begs the question, why did Renner wait so long? He could have launched his campaign after Winooski’s Town Meeting Day, which would have given him two more months to ramp up a statewide effort. By waiting, he made his own task much more difficult.

Conventional wisdom would have Zuckerman as the heavy favorite. That’s reasonable, but sometimes conventional wisdom is wrong, and Renner does have some things going for him. The day to watch is July 1, the next campaign finance filing deadline. If Renner’s got himself a BAG, then he’s a contender. If not, he’s probably roadkill.

Renner’s candidacy does add a rare note of intrigue to what’s likely to be a fairly drab primary campaign. The primaries for Congress and U.S. Senate should be routine affairs. The other statewides are running for re-election and are unlikely to be challenged in August. The Democratic gubernatorial primary is either going to be a coronation for Howard Dean or Miro Weinberger or a dispiriting battle of unknowns. Just for the sake of political drama, I kinda hope Renner knows what he’s doing.