I’ve got some meatier posts in the works, but they’re not quite ready for prime time (or whatever time you think this blog operates on, probably that weird half-hour Newfoundland thing), so in the meantime here’s a little diversion.

After I recently wrote about the oncoming scourge of gambling on everything prediction markets, the thought crossed my mind, Can you bet on Vermont stuff? Like politics, for example?

The answer is, of course you can. But the shape and size of the markets reinforces one of my core beliefs: Hardly anybody cares about Vermont politics. (I’ve been writing about it for almost 15 years, and I’m fully aware of the limited audience.) Which makes the prediction markets useless when it comes to crowdsourced insight. The available propositions have garnered so little interest that they have no predictive value whatsoever.

Take the above screenshot from Kalshi, one of the two major players in the barely-disguised gambling prediction market business. The two people getting the lion’s share of the action are extremely unlikely to run for governor: Attorney General Charity Clark and Treasurer “Smilin’ Mike” Pieciak. And holding down a distant third is House Speaker Jill Krowinski, who’s not even on the long lists of rumored candidates.

Not appearing at all: The only declared Democratic candidate, Amanda Janoo. It wouldn’t be the worst idea to lay down a few shekels on her because (so far) she’s the only one who’s actually, you know, running.

Even more telling about the lack of interest in #vtpoli: Only about $5,000 has been spent in Kalshi’s marketplace for this race. Compare that to the far more vibrant Kalshi propositions on UVM basketball. Catamount games routinely draw over a half million dollars in wagers predictions — 100 times more action than on the Democratic race for governor. A UVM/Maine game in February generated more than $3,000,000 in action.

Priorities, I know.

If you think that’s sad, well, Polymarket is even more dismal. It has Pieciak a slight favorite over Clark, with Esther Charlestin running a distant third. That’s right, Charlestin, a declared candidate for lieutenant governor. Even sadder: So far, nobody has bothered to bet invest a single dollar on Polymarket for any Democratic candidate. It’s zeros across the board.

Here’s where it gets a tiny bit interesting. Kalshi’s offering of bets contracts on the Republican gubernatorial race has incumbent Phil Scott as the likely winner at 80%, and Lt. Gov. John Rodgers at 9%. (Vermont Republican Party chair Paul Dame is at 3%, which is a vast overestimation of his prospects.) It’s enough to make you wonder if somebody knows something about Scott’s plans and is trying to make a little coin on their insider status. Probably too conspiratorial to be true, although Kalshi has already banned a California politician for placing bets on his own candidacy for governor, so stuff does happen.

Insider trading is an intriguing thought, but the more likely explanation is a bit of noise in the market, which has received just a bit more than $1,000 in business. That’s not even a small crowd — that’s a phone booth.

Polymarket has similar figures: Scott at 88% and Rodgers at 8%. Interestingly, more money has been “bet” on Rodgers — $1,171 versus $655. Eh, it’s not a bad option for a long-odds position.

Also making my antennae quiver just a little: Kalshi offers the proposition “Who will win the governorship in Vermont?” Republican is at 70% and Democratic 26%, which seems like kinda low odds on a Republican victory. It is, again, a very small amount of money, just a tad more than $1,300. Polymarket’s been taking more action on the contest, almost $7,000 in all, with Republican at 80% and Democrat at 19%.

Kalshi gives the Democrats a 96% chance of retaining Vermont’s single Congressional seat while Polymarket is at 98%, which seems about right. Kalshi’s also got a Dem/Repub market open for the 2028 U.S. Senate contest, with Democrats holding a 96-4 edge.

And that’s about it. No markets for the other statewide races or majority status in the state House or Senate. Kinda sad. Although given my dim view of prediction markets, I’d just as soon we don’t see a flood of money rushing into any of our contests. That would really make my antennae quiver, big time.