Every spring there comes a moment when you suddenly realize, “Wow, the legislative session is just about over.” For me, that moment came last week, with a bunch of stories about progress on major bills. A look at the calendar made me realize that in many other years,adjournment would have already adjourned. We’re well into overtime already.

We’re also getting a pretty clear idea of what history will make of the 2025 session, and it’s exactly what we all could have predicted last November 6, when Republicans decimated the Democrats’ veto-proof legislative majorities. No longer was the majority secure in its ability to override vetoes.

And they have legislated accordingly, trying to pass major bills that would be acceptable to the all-time record holder for vetoes by a Vermont governor. Scott, meanwhile, has pursued his customary course: Sitting in the balcony, tossing Jujubes at the stage, and emitting a squid-ink cloud of uncertainty around what he’d be willing to accept.

The result is a disappointment to anyone hoping for progressive lawmaking, but an entirely predictable one. What else could the Legislature do, really?

Without a bunch of Republican votes, they can’t override a single veto. They have two choices: Accomplish very little, or find ways to accommodate The Man Behind The Curtain.

The only issue that provides some measure of hope is climate change, where the legislation is already on the books. The ball is in the Legislature’s court. They don’t have to find common ground with a governor who gives great lip service but wants to remove all the legal requirements for climate action in hopes that nothing will have to be done until he’s long gone from office.

They will have to stiffen their resolve against Scott’s continuing “affordability” offensive, which contributed greatly to last year’s election results. That’s far from a sure thing, but so far the Legislature hasn’t given significant ground. We’ll see what the coming days bring.

Otherwise, on issues like emergency shelter for the homeless, property taxes, education reform, and tax relief for military retirees, the Legislature is giving ground. They’re likely to have to pull in their horns on new measures to protect immigratnts and refugees. Because again, it’s either that or get nothing done. Tough choice.

Let’s take a closer look, from worst to least offensive.

Number one with a bullet is emergency housing. The Legislature is moving toward an extension of the current motel voucher program, which has caused the unsheltering of hundreds of households. This time last year, the Legislature reluctantly agreed to the current program and hoped for the best. Things went just as badly as housing advocated predicted, and the Democrats knew they’d been sold a bill of goods by the administration. They entered this session determined to improve the program but Scott stood in the way, and now it’s white flag time. (There’s also the gross mismanagement, which has resulted in an open revolt by the state employees’ union and a court decision against the Scott administration. This program is a damn shitshow, and now we’re stuck with it for another year.)

Next worst is property tax relief. The Senate has advanced a bill to buy down property tax rates. Average increases will be about 1%. Which is nice, but the mechanism is sheer financial stupidity. As it was last year, when the Legislature shot down the governor’s plan to buy down property tax rates. This year, they know they can’t pass a yield bill with significant tax increases over the governor’s veto. So the Senate went ahead and appropriated $118 million in one-time funds to artificially lower property tax rates. Even though they know it’s stupid.

This will bite them, and the entire public school system, in the ass next year. It’s very likely there will be no one-time funds at all. And with Blue Cross Blue Shield of Vermont proposing premium hikes north of 20%, school districts will begin the budgeting process in a deep hole. The ironic thing about this proposal is that Scott would be absolutely against it in any other scenario. In this case, he’s hoping for a financial crisis in the system because it will drive forward the case for major structural change.

The Legislature is considering a bunch of bills to improve protections for immigrants and refugees, and to limit the use of state prisons to house federal detainees. This has become a critical issue thanks to the unconstitutional, black-ops crackdown by the Trump administration. It’s sure looking like Scott is unlikely to accept anything significant. He’s furrowing his brows at the feds, but he and his minions are raising all kinds of objections to any real changes. The endgame is either the Legislature pulling in its horns, or Scott vetoing a bunch of bills. Either outcome will be disappointing.

Now we get to Education reform. This one is critical, but the outcome is still somewhat up in the air. But the very fact that legislative leaders are determined to pass some kind of major reform is already a surrender to the Scott administration. The Legislature, you may recall, approved a Commission on the Future of Public Education tasked with reimagining the structure and financing of the public schools. Its report was due by the end of this year. Instead, the Legislature has basically killed the Commission and moved ahead with reforms that may turn out to be flawed and ill-considered.

They began behind the eight-ball in late February, when Scott belatedly unveiled his education reform plan and demanded the Legislature pass it in record time. Leadership wisely turned down that ultimatum, but again, they’re stuck with the task of devising a reform plan on the fly that (a) won’t hurt their constituents and core voters too badly, (b) might actually work, (c) do unintended harm, and (d) will be acceptable to the governor. I don’t envy leadership that task. But for those who care about public schools, I think the best hope is that the whole thing comes a-crashing down: The Legislature passes a bill, the governor vetoes it, and the whole thing gets shelved until 2026. Second best hope is a reform package that eases immediate pressures while doing minimal damage.

Occupying last place on this list of legislative climbdowns is tax relief for military veterans. This has been a Phil Scott hobbyhorse for years, and has always been resisted by Legislatures uninterested in opening new holes in state finances. This year, in what Vermont Public called a “major policy shift,” the House’s tax writers came crawling in Scott’s direction. Not entirely, but they gave him a victory he can crow about.

All this is to say that, well, elections have consequences. The results of the 2024 vote have led inevitably to the dispiriting conclusion of this year’s session. If the Democrats want to make significant progress anytime soon, they’ll have to up their game for 2026. In the meantime, we’ll be over here muddling through.