I have to say, it’s the first book I’ve ever read that gave away the conclusion right there in the title. I also have to say this isn’t the best-written book ever published — but it’s also an absolutely vital contribution to the discourse. In a fairly slim volume (204 pages plus extensive notes), co-authors Gregg Colburn and Clayton Page Aldern examine the various theories about the causes of homelessness and, with comprehensive evidence, dismiss all of them but one: as the title says, Homelessness Is a Housing Problem.

It’s not crime or mental illness or opioids or laziness or liberal policies or conservative policies or family strife or poverty or unemployment. Homelessness becomes an issue whenever and wherever there’s a shortage of housing. Like, for instance, here in Vermont.

That’s it. Case closed.

This book reads more like an academic paper, which is to say it’s not the most readable thing despite its brevity. The authors likely believed this approach was necessary because, after all, they weren’t aiming for a page-turner. (It was published by a university press, a warning sign to readers seeking entertainment.) They wanted to examine each theory about homelessness and lay out the available evidence in a dispassionate manner. Which they do, to tremendous effect.

The way they approach the question is by examining why different cities experience vastly different rates of homelessness. Which they do, and while some of the differences make sense, others do not. At all.

Take Detroit, for example. Rust Belt economy, high unemployment, poverty, crime, and substance use.

And low rates of homelessness. Less than half the rates you’ll find in far more prosperous cities like Seattle and San Francisco. And, well, Burlington.

There’s a simple reason for this seeming conundrum. We’ll get to it in a minute.

First, though, let’s look at some popular theories about the causes of homelessness and the fundamental misconception that undermines them all.

We’re talking about poverty, unemployment, mental illness, substance use, and race. Every one of them makes an individual more likely to become homeless. But none of them are systemic causes of homelessness. There’s no correlation between high rates of mental illness or substance use and high rates of homelessness. The ethnic makeup of a city seems to have no bearing on the severity of its homelessness problem.

The other two theories, poverty and unemployment, bring us back to Detroit and cities like it — Cleveland, Philadelphia, or Baltimore, for instance. High rates of poverty and unemployment — but relatively low rates of homelessness.

Why? Because the real causes of homelessness are housing supply and cost. There may not be enough jobs in Detroit, but there’s plenty of housing. Seattle, on the other hand, can boast a strong economy — but housing prices are sky-high, which forces more people into homelessness.

Seattle. Or Burlington. Or Vermont in general. We have low unemployment, but we also have housing shortages and the sky-high prices that result. So much so that even people with full-time jobs can find themselves unhoused. As the authors put it:

People experience poverty in every city in the country, but the consequences of being poor in a richer area appear to be more profound than they would be in a less affluent location, all else being equal.

The authors compare Detroit and Boston, two cities that were in similar situations 50 years ago — industrial powerhouses on the decline. Since then, Detroit has struggled while Boston has experienced a rebirth thanks to its strength in financial services, higher education, technology and health care.

All in all, you’d rather be Boston than Detroit. But Boston’s booming economy has meant higher housing costs and, wouldn’t you know it, higher rates of homelessness.

To paraphrase Bill Clinton, it’s the housing, stupid.

There’s more to this book; this post only covers the first half. But that’s more than enough to digest in one sitting. I will leave you with one passage about the lasting impact of homelessness on those who experience it. You know, just in case Our Betters, who continue to whistle past the literal graveyard on this issue, need a little kick in the conscience.

For adults, the consequences of homelessness are dire. People who experience homelessness die at earlier ages,contract infectious diseases at higher rates, are hospitalized at earlier ages and make more trips to the emergency room, are more likely to be victims of physical and sexual assault, and misuse substances at higher rates…

… Research on child and youth homelessness reports a range of negative outcomes, including developmental delays for young children, high levels of anxiety, poor health outcomes, inadequate preventive medical care, higher levels of emotional and behavior problems, and academic underachievement and delays. Homeless youth are also disproportionately exposed to abuse of all types, including sexual trauma.

We’re expecting our first severe cold snap of the season this weekend, with temperatures likely to stay in the single digits for 36+ hours between Saturday night and Monday morning and lowest temps falling well below zero. And according to VTDigger, the state turned away 344 households from the General Assistance Emergency Housing program in the first half of this month — all of those households being officially deemed “vulnerable.”

Happy Holidays, everybody.