We Vermonters tend to have a sunny view of ourselves and our B.L.S. Sometimes it’s justified, sometimes it’s overblown, sometimes it’s horse hockey. But there’s one consistent idea in our politics that reveals a strain of self-loathing. Funny thing is, it’s an idea that happens to be untrue.
I’m speaking of the notion that people are fleeing the state. I’ve been hearing this as long as I’ve been covering Vermont politics. It most often comes from conservative politicians bitching about high taxes. People are leaving Vermont in droves, they say, because the Democrats are out of control and taxes are too high. This is usually accompanied by an anecdote featuring an anonymous Vermonter planning or contemplating a move.
Funny thing is, I have yet to see any actual evidence for the claim. If people are fleeing Vermont, they leave no trace in the data.
The latest contraindication came from the office of Treasurer Michael Pieciak. His experienced bean-counters did an analysis of Census data which found that on a per capita basis, Vermont ranked #3 in the nation and #1 in the Northeast in net in-migration. It was the third year in a row that Vermont saw more people move in than move out.
Which is not to say that nobody is leaving. It’s just that a lot more are entering.
And the #1 destination for Vermonters departing our B.L.S.? It’s not New Hampshire or Florida or Texas or any other low-tax state. It’s New York. And, well, I have family who live there, and let me tell you, New York taxes are no picnic.
Let’s move on to an annual study by United Van Lines that tracks customers’ state-to-state migration patterns. In 2023, Vermont was at the top of the list. We had the highest ratio of inbound-to-outbound moves in the nation.
For the third consecutive year.
Last year, almost two-thirds of United’s Vermont moves were inbound. A bit more than one-third were outbound.
United also listed the primary reason for each move, and only 7% of those leaving Vermont cited “cost” as the primary motive.
Hmm.
Now, United is only one moving company. But its data lines up with pretty much everything I’ve seen elsewhere. Take, for instance, the fact that Vermont has a housing supply crisis. If people were leaving in quantity, there’d be a lot more homes available and prices wouldn’t be through the roof.
I’m not trying to argue whether our taxes are too hot, too cold, or just right. What I am saying is that the next piece of evidence I see that taxation is driving people away will be the first.
I’ll repost a paragraph I wrote back in 2021, when a big national study of state-to-state migration found — again — that Vermont was gaining more than it was losing and that we did particularly well among high earners.
So let’s take a fresh look at what we have to offer that makes Vermont so attractive, and worry less about our supposed drawbacks. This ought to destroy the myth that our tax system is scaring people off and chasing them away. It’s just not happening. We’re getting a lot more in-migration than New Hampshire, after all. Maybe we can afford an income tax surcharge that would allow us to make needed investments in housing, education, broadband, and the green economy.
We’re another three-plus years down the road, and the available evidence provides no support for the idea that taxes are driving Vermonters away. “This ought to destroy the myth,” but of course it won’t. Not as long as the myth provides support for closely-held political beliefs.
But the evidence is overwhelming. People are not fleeing Vermont because of high taxes or any other cost factor. Remember this the next time Phil Scott talks about taxes.
The Vermont Political Observer. 
Yeah. I’ve heard rumors of those who’ve left, threats by those who plan to, even listened to personal reports of field work in Tennessee, Kentucky, N.C., S.C. But those sojourners returned, if not chastened, not outward-bound to a newly discovered promised land. The ones I know of who moved and stayed moved went thirty years ago, an exodus of art and music lovers to Brooklyn, the nouveau hip to Portland and Seattle, and ski fanatics to Jackson Hole. Moves for love, not taxes. Maybe that outflow is still going. Lord knows, I made that move, muttering, “I’ll never come back to this f*&^#g place,” and, twenty years later made the return trip; sixty years later, here I be, home still.
Regional data, admittedly harder to parse, have for some years likewise supported this conclusion. And Doug Hoffer, in his pre-auditor incarnation, on several occasions also pulled together data that belied the anecdotes and resentment.
“Which is not to say that nobody is leaving. It’s just that a lot more are entering.”
While I cannot cite any data on this, certainly not what the state treasurer has, I can from my experience and work on the front lines of Vermont’s tourist business. I’ve met climate refugees, coming in from the west which is slowly burning up. I’ve met people from the red states, fleeing the oppression of their governors and legislators and coming here to find some humanity.
I’ve talked with people who came here during Covid, still shell-shocked from what the Republican governors were doing to them, and disbelieving that a Republican governor was not deliberately sacrificing his citizens so the rich could make more money. Others have come here simply to escape the American Dream.
I agree that the line about people fleeing the state because of taxes is horse hockey from those who don’t want to pay taxes and make us pay the taxes for them. I’m sure we’ll hear it again
You can’t kill a convenient myth.
“You can’t kill a convenient myth.”
Yep
Literally no one has said this since before COVID, all we’ve done is complain about the people moving in driving up the price of housing
Oh, come on. Phil Scott says it every time he complains about taxes, which is roughly every time he opens his mouth.
Our Family left nearly 10 years ago. Best financial decision I have ever made, the property tax saving alone was a major contributor (We did not qualify for tax subsidies). For the record, we didn’t leave solely because of the high taxes, but it was in the top few reasons we left. Between property taxes and the high income taxes we were paying we have a net savings of nearly 10k/year. (We did not move to a zero income tax state) Over the past 10 years that’s been rough 100k in our pocket. Put that in the market with a 8% return and that an extra $160k I can now put towards my 3 kids education.
My hunch is that the high net worth individuals that are staying in Vermont have their income structured so as to now have a lot of W2 income. We did and we didn’t have a way around it.
Still have family in Vermont we visit but zero intention of ever moving back.