Sen. Chris Bray seems to have contracted a mild case of the fantods regarding his prospects for re-election to a [checks notes] seventh term in office. He’s raised quite a bit of money, and he’s spent even more than he’s raised. Before the August primary, he and fellow Addison County Sen. Ruth Hardy spent big against a challenge from Rep. Caleb Elder that, frankly, was doomed from the start. As I said in my previous post, incumbent senators just don’t lose unless they’ve committed gross malfeasance, aged beyond the electorate’s tolerance, or done something equivalently heinous.

And now, Bray is spending beyond his means against a surprisingly well-funded challenge from Republican Steven Heffernan (and a not-nearly-so-well-funded challenge from Republican Landel Cochran). And I get it; in his position, he shouldn’t be taking anything for granted. But I’m here to tell you that Bray ain’t losing. Heffernan’s odds are roughly equivalent to a snowball in a very hot place.

Look. Besides the fact that incumbent senators never lose, there’s the district. It’s been a full generation since Addison sent a Republican to the senior chamber: Tom Bahre in 2000, the year of the great civil unions backlash. Since then, two Democrats every two years for a grand total of 22 elected Dems to zero Republicans. In 2022, Bray and seatmate Ruth Hardy each received more than 33% of the vote, while third-place Republican Lloyd Dike lagged with 16.4%. Republicans have routinely finished far out of the running in Addison, except for those years when the GOP didn’t even bother to field candidates.

Yes, Heffernan is a more credible figure than Dike, one of the radical right hopefuls who co-signed a 2022 newspaper ad denying that global warming exists and asserting that greenhouse gases are actually good for us and the planet. Heffernan isn’t one o’ them. But he’s not winning, either. Not in Addison, not in a Senate race against two established Democratic incumbents.

Bray likely seemed a promising target for the VTGOP because of his strong advocacy for fighting climate change. As chair of the Senate Natural Resources & Energy Committee, he has spearheaded the chamber’s efforts on bills like the Global Warming Solutions Act and the clean heat standard. That puts him in the crosshairs of Republican efforts, and those of the dark-money Americans for Prosperity, to strike back at the Dem/Prog supermajority that passed those bills over gubernatorial vetoes.

Heffernan, who runs an auto repair business in Bristol (which kinda gives him a direct stake in the climate change debate, no?), has attracted generous support from the Barons of Burlington, the plutocrats who have littered the landscape with four-figure checks in support of select Senate candidates and John Rodgers, Republican candidate for lieutenant governor.

Heffernan was a late add to the Barons’ roster. His early campaign finance filings reveal yet another underfunded Republican candidacy; as of August 1, he had raised less than $3,000. Then came the deluge: nearly $15,000 in August, another $14,000 in September, and $11,000 in the first half of October, bringing his campaign total to $43,025. Yeah, that’d be enough to catch an incumbent’s attention.

His four-figure backers include fossil fuel magnate Skip Vallee, his wife Denise and his business R.L. Vallee Inc., along with a bunch of familiar names: Bruce Lisman, Brian and Scott Boardman, Mark Bove, Douglas Nedde, C.B. Properties, Wills Two LLC, Bissonette Property Management, James Crook, and a bunch of others. Pretty much the entire Baronial brood.

(Before we continue with Heffernan’s finances, let’s pour one out for ticketmate Landel Cochran, who’s gotten precious little from the Barons. He did receive $1,000 from Bissonette and another $500 from Jerry Tarrant, but otherwise nada. He’s raised a total of $12,425 but that includes $1,295 from himself, plus a handful of nice checks from fringey types like, well, Lenore Broughton. And, adding insult to injury, Gov. Phil Scott just did radio ads and a mailer touting Heffernan but not Cochran. So sad.)

Heffernan has funneled a lot of his treasure through Battleground Strategies, the D.C.-based consultancy operated by former Jim Douglas hatchet man Jim Barnett. I’m sure it’s way too pricey for small-state candidates, and probably produces generic conservative hit pieces with little regard for the district or its voters, but Heffernan had money to burn and by God, he was going to burn it. Battleground has billed Heffernan a cool $22,138 for designing, printing, and mailing postcards. What a bargain.

He also spent $1,000 on the services of Florida-based Caxambas Consulting, owned and operated by one Hayden Dublois, former Phil Scott aide turned right-wing operative. Dublois’ day job is with the Foundation for Governmental Accountability, which was the subject of a 2023 article in The Nation entitled “Is This the Most Dangerous Right-Wing Think Tank You’ve Never Heard Of?” The presumed answer is “Yes,” since the story describes FGA as having “spent the last decade influencing Republican state legislatures to gut the social safety net, shrink the voting population, and turn back the clock on fundamental rights that Americans might have assumed they could take for granted.”

Gee, sounds like a great fit for Vermont.

So this is the challenge that has Chris Bray running — well, maybe scared is too strong a word. Let’s say “running harder than he has in years, possibly ever.”

(Speaking of lucrative consultancies, I hesitate to report that Bray’s campaign is helmed by the Glimmer Twins of the Stewart Ledbetter crash ‘n burn: Charyk & Francis LLC. The boyz have billed Bray a grand total of $37,573, including $28,603 for designing, printing and mailing postcards (enough to fill the Grand Canyon, more or less), $6,000 in good ol’ consulting fees, $2,200 for placing online ads, and $770 for buying radio ads. Apparently the senator can’t put on his pants in the morning without the assistance of Nick & Lachlan.)

Bray’s burst of activity began in primary season, when Elder dared to challenge his Senate colleagues. Bray and Hardy both spent heavily on the race, Bray far more than Hardy. In fact, Bray managed to spend a stunning $41,005 on the primary campaign. He’s slowed his pace since then, but his total expenditures are $47,837 against fundraising of “only” $40,083. The balance is unexplained so far. He hasn’t listed any personal donations or loans to his campaign, but that $7,754 didn’t just appear on his doorstep. (Hardy has raised $21,019 and spent $20,084, cheap by Bray’s standard.)

Methinks Bray may have lost some political muscle tone, what with all the walkover wins he’s enjoyed. Faced with rare electoral challenges, he’s spent massively (including thousands he doesn’t have) on a primary he was almost certain to win and a general campaign featuring a guy who’s squandering the small fortune he was gifted by the Barons. All in a strongly Democratic district, and in a legislative body where incumbents routinely win.

Again, I’m not saying Bray should sit back and wait for the votes to roll in. But I have no doubt he’s going to win.

Not that I have a spotless record picking winners.