I’ve previously discussed the Republicans’ chances of ending the Dem/Prog supermajority in the House, which are essentially zero. Now it’s time for the Senate, where the Republicans do have an actual chance at ending the supermajority — but the odds are stacked against them.

Scene setting: During the current biennium, the D/P contingent totaled 23 while the R’s had only seven. Twenty votes constitute the narrowest of supermajorities, so the Dems have had a nice little margin for error.

The Republicans need to post a net gain of at least four seats in November to end the supermajority, but every seat they pick up makes it harder to override.

Quick assessment: If absolutely everything broke their way, the Republicans could pick up a maximum of five more seats — which would leave the D/P majority with 18, two short of a supermajority. But the chances of that are slim at best. The Republicans are more likely to win a seat or two, which would preserve the supermajority but make overrides harder to achieve. If you spin the scenario the other way, the Dems could hold serve and pick off one Republican seat.

This is especially true since there’s one element of the 2024 campaign that might overwhelm everything else: The recently upended presidential race. Democratic and Progressive voters are likely to turn out in force for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz — or against Donald Trump, if you prefer. Turnouts are always higher in presidential years, and higher by quite a lot. The last four cycles, with total votes cast for governor:

• 2022: 291,955
• 2020: 370,968
• 2018: 278,230
• 2016; 320,467

The high water mark in 2020 was achieved largely because of the Covid-inspired switch to universal mail ballots. That remains the case this year, so it’s reasonable to expect a similar number this year. It could be even higher if the current brushfire of Harris-Walz enthusiasm (and Donald Trump antipathy) carries through to November. Should turnout surpass 2020, the Republicans will have a very hard time scoring any gains anywhere in Vermont.

But let’s get into it. By my count, the VTGOP has a total of 25 Senate candidates including seven incumbents, at least six of whom are safe bets for re-election: Randy Brock and Robert Norris (Franklin), Russ Ingalls (Essex), Richard Westman (Lamoille), and two of the three Rutland boys, Brian Collamore, David Weeks and Terry Williams. The Democrats have only one candidate in Rutland, Marsha Cassel*; they have been capable of the occasional win there, but it takes some effort. As of August 1, Cassel had raised $4,823 and spent $2,501. Not exactly robust. She is a serious candidate, however; in the year of Tim Walz, it’s worth pointing out that she was a schoolteacher for 24 years. That’s the only realistic chance the Dems have to pick up a Senate seat.

*Correction: Three Democrats will appear on the November ballot in Rutland County. Cassel and Robert Richards were on the primary ballot and advanced to the general, while Daana Peterson won a nomination via write-in.

For the sake of argument, however, let’s assume the Republicans hold their seven seats. They have 18 non-incumbent candidates. A full 13 of them are not competitive. The Republicans may have gotten people on the ballot in Addison, Bennington, Chittenden Southeast, Washington, Windham, and Windsor, but they aren’t winning any of those seats. So they’re left with a maximum of five potential pickups In perceived order of likelihood:

• Caledonia. Otherwise known as Jane Kitchel’s seat. Her perpetual incumbency obscures the partisan makeup of the district. We can assume a Republican lean, but we don’t know. The Democratic candidate, Amanda Cochrane, has Kitchel’s strong backing. But Republican Rep. Scott Beck has a shit-ton of money and he’s well-known in St. Johnsbury, the district’s population center. He also has the advantage of being a principled conservative, not a nutball.

As of August 1, Beck had raised a whopping $48,560. He’d only spent $9,744 to brush aside the fringe candidacy of JT Dodge, so he has close to $40K on hand — at least. I expect the September 1 finance report will show him continuing to rake in the bucks. Cochrane raised a respectable $16,369 (as of 8/1) but spent more than half of it in the primary. We’ll soon find out if her fundraising accelerated post-primary as Democratic donors, presumably, start funnelling money into swing districts. But based on what we know now, Beck has a five-to-one edge in cash on hand. I have to think he’s the favorite.

One other factoid: The Democratic primary saw 1,652 votes cast to the Republicans’ 1,382. That’s a single data point and a lot of factors can influence primary turnout, but I wouldn’t have guessed that the Dems would outdraw the Repubs in Caledonia.

• Chittenden North. When this district was created after the 2020 Census, it was thought to lean Republican. That notion failed the reality test in 2022 when Dem Irene Wrenner beat former state rep Leland Morgan by three full percentage points. It must be said that Morgan didn’t exactly run an energetic campaign. This time Wrenner has the advantage of incumbency, but she’ll be up against Rep. Chris Mattos, who will presumably put up more of a fight. For what it’s worth, there were significantly more Democratic votes than Republican on primary day: 1,454 D, 1,175 R. Mattos didn’t raise much money pre-primary, but Wrenner spent a lot more than he did. As of 8/1, Mattos had a slight but non-decisive edge in cash on hand. I expect the business types who backed primary winners Beck and LG candidate John Rodgers and Senate hopeful Rep. Patrick Brennan (and losers Stewart Ledbetter and Elizabeth Brown) will jump on the Mattos train.

• Grand Isle. As with Caledonia, the longtime incumbency of the late Dick Mazza obscures the partisan makeup of the district. In 2022 Mazza easily dispatched graphene conspiratorialist Stephen Bellows by a three-to-one margin. This year’s contest features a credible Republican in House veteran Brennan, who will face Sen. Andy Julow, the Dem appointed to the seat by the governor.

Brennan’s fundraising got a turbo-boost in July as Burlington-area business leaders poured four-figure checks into his kitty. As of 8/1 he had close to $25,000 in cash on hand. Julow, meanwhile, spent big on a spirited primary battle with Julie Hulburd; as of 8/1 he had about $3,000 on hand. I’m betting a lot more money will be spent in Grand Isle before the votes are tabulated. I give Julow the edge, but I’m not dogmatic about it.

• Orleans. The race to replace human stain Bobby Starr appears lopsided on its surface. Democratic Rep. Katherine Sims knows how to win in the Kingdom, and she amassed a formidable campaign fund of more than $46,000. As of 8/1, she’d spent a bit more than one-third of that. Her opponent, Kyle Rittenhouse fanboy Samuel Douglass, ran against Starr in 2022 and earned 42% of the vote. Pre-primary, Douglass raised a comparatively puny $7,123 and managed to spend almost half of it as of 8/1. He’ll be at a huge disadvantage in finance and political savvy. I expect him to lose, but a victory is not out of the question.

• Orange. The Republicans have been eyeing this district for a few cycles now, as longtime incumbent Mark MacDonald has entered his twilight years. The vultures were circling in 2022 when the Senate’s most prominent cartoonist suffered a stroke one month before the election. MacDonald was still in rehab on Election Day and did virtually no campaigning at all. He still beat Republican John Klar by 11 percentage points. Now, somebody named Larry Hart, Sr. is giving it a go.

Well, sort of. He hasn’t raised or spent over $500, the legal threshold for campaign finance reporting. Not exactly a sign of a spirited campaign. On the other hand, MacDonald hasn’t hit the threshold either. But he does have the huge advantage of a 21-year incumbency. Maybe Hart has a shot, but it says here that MacDonald goes back to Montpelier.

That’s the list. To end the supermajority, the Republicans need to hold their seats and win four of those five races. I doubt they’re going to get there, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they score a net gain of one or two. That would make veto overrides much tougher.

What remains to be seen is where and how the money flows. Do the Burlington oligarchs continue to write big checks? Do Democratic donors start giving strategically in support of possibly endangered Dem senators? I suspect the answer to both questions is “Yes.” With a House supermajority not in serious danger and another uncompetitive gubernatorial race in prospect, defending the Senate is the best political investment for deep-pocketed liberals.

Also, the Dems have a subtle tactical advantage: There’s quite a bit of overlap between competitive districts in the House and Senate. That means the Dems will be able to double up their grassroots and GOTV efforts, where they already have a huge advantage over the under-resourced VTGOP.

And again, the particulars of these contests may be overwhelmed by a tsunami of Democratic votes in November. They’ll be motivated by the presidential race and Bernie Sanders’ re-election bid. A high Dem turnout would more than overcome whatever tax revolt might be brewing across Vermont.