Monthly Archives: March 2024

…Or Maybe Everybody Just Hates Joan: A Deeper Dive into the Mayoral Numbers

My recent post about the Burlington mayoral election drew a fair bit of intelligent response. Even on Twitter, which used to happen all the time but never in the post-Elon hellscape of X. Much of the discussion came from Democrats with fact-based arguments against the idea that Burlington is a Progressive town. Some good information, which makes me think that Burlington is less a Progressive town and more a swing town that can go either way depending on circumstances and candidate quality. And inspires me to write a follow-up taking a closer look at some telling statistics.

Let’s start with defeated Democratic hopeful Joan Shannon, seen above commiserating with campaign manager and soon-to-be-ex-councilor Hannah King. The failure of Shannon’s campaign was partially masked in the overall vote totals. She did draw 500-plus more votes than Miro Weinberger in 2021, but she badly underperformed Democratic council candidates in wards where there was a Democrat on the ballot. Shockingly so, in fact.

One more thing to emphasize up top: It wasn’t the student vote. Democrats can stop complaining about that. The numbers say quite the opposite; Progressive winner Emma Mulvaney-Stanak performed strongly in non-student areas of the city.

Continue reading

Top VTGOP Official Accuses… VTGOP? … of Deploying a “Dishonest Mechanism”

Former Vermont Republican Party chair — and current Vermont Republican Party Treasurer — Deb Billado has a beef with, um, the Vermont Republican Party. Billado is reportedly “the head of the Donald Trump campaign team in Vermont.” She claims that state party leaders fixed the presidential primary in Nikki Haley’s favor, presumably when she wasn’t in the room. From the Vermont Daily Chronicle:

“Republican leadership invited that very dishonest mechanism to get someone elected and nominated, only to have them drop out the next morning,” Billado said in a phone call to VDC Wednesday morning.

The irony is so thick you couldn’t cut it with a machete. Billado’s beau idéal is the all-time champion of election skulduggery, having (1) sought Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, (2) tried to blackmail Ukraine into providing bogus evidence against Hunter Biden, (3) sought foreign interference in the 2020 election, (4) fought to overturn the results of that vote after being told over and over again, by aides, lawyers, and the courts that there was no evidence of fraud, and (5) sparked an attempted insurrection on January 6, 2021.

Billado is fine with ignoring all of that. What she sees as a “dishonest mechanism” is Vermont’s long-established open primary system in which any registered voter can participate in the party primary of their choosing. She whines that only Republicans should be allowed to vote in the primary. Which would be a neat trick, since Vermont law does not allow voters to register a party preference. Perhaps she’d administer a loyalty oath at the polling place.

Continue reading

Maybe Burlington Is Just a Progressive Town

Before Town Meeting Day, I was bracing myself for what could have been the most reactionary election in who knows how long. Conventional wisdom had it that Burlington Progressives would be punished for being “soft on crime,” and Vermont voters would revolt against rising property taxes by voting down school budgets.

As it turned out, none of that really happened. Sure, roughly one-third of school budgets lost. In a normal year, no more than a handful of budgets go down to defeat. But one-third doesn’t exactly constitute carnage. It definitely sends a message to state policymakers that something needs to be done, and if legislators are smart they’ll pass something significant before the session ends. What it says to me, in total, is that Vermont voters really like their schools and are willing to dig pretty deep to support public education, but their patience and resources are not unlimited.

In Burlington, meanwhile, the expected backlash to Progressive crime policy didn’t materialize. Councilor and Democratic mayoral nominee Joan Shannon, pictured above with Councilor Hannah King, who lost her bid for re-election and managed Shannon’s losing campaign), was seemingly on a glide path to the mayoralty after years of media drumbeating over CHAOS IN THE QUEEN CITY. But it turned out that voters weren’t there for an enforcement-heavy response to public safety concerns.

The campaign centered around the issue, but Mayor-elect Emma Mulvaney-Stanak promoted a comprehensive agenda that addressed the causes as well as the consequences of the public safety situation. Shannon emphasized boosting the police force (and ragging on the Progs for their 2020 vote to cut the BPD, and it might be time to retire that talking point).

Continue reading

The Operation Was a Success, But the Patient Died

Congratulations to Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley for her big victory in the Vermont prim — what’s that you say? She ended her campaign after losing every Super Tuesday state besides Vermont?

Oh. Well, then. As Lou Reed put it, “Something flickered for a minute, and then it vanished and was gone.”

It’s pretty clear that Haley won Vermont thanks to our wide-open primary system in which any voter can select any primary ballot. The numbers from last night show that Haley’s win was fueled by independents and Democrats wanting to stick it to Donald Trump.

I took a deep comparative dive into the 2024 and 2020 presidential primaries. Now, every election has its own dynamics so no two are directly comparable, but the numbers are overwhelming. Trump’s vote total was virtually identical: 33,139 in 2024 versus 33,019 in 2020.

But that 33,019 represented 84% of the 2020 Republican primary electorate. Last night, 33,139 only represented 45% of the vote. With the same number of votes, Trump won overwhelmingly four years ago and lost by a significant margin this time.

Continue reading

The Free Press Takes Another Step Away from Tangibility

A sad but inevitable day for the dwindling cadre of Burlington Free Press readers, whoever they are. The “newspaper,” if that is indeed the proper term by now, has announced that as of April 1 (no foolin’), it will no longer deliver paper editions to subscribers’ homes, instead depending on the tender mercies of Louis DeJoy’s US Postal Service to get the papers to your doorstep mailbox within probably mere days of publication.

(As a subscriber to a paper that went to mail delivery a few years ago, I can tell you that this is a road to newspaper irrelevance. We hardly ever get the Times Argus on the day of printing. There’s often a gap of two or three — or four or six or more — days between publication and delivery.)

The announcement of the change, penned by the Freeps’ Dinosaur-in-Chief Aki Soga, contained a goodly quantity of desperate word salad meant to obscure the harsh reality of the business and make this seem like a good thing.

The reality is this: Free Press readership is cratering. I doubt that there are enough print subscribers to justify anyone’s time covering ever-longer delivery routes with ever-fewer paying customers.

I hadn’t realized how bad the carnage was until I read Seven Days’ writeup, which includes some extinction-level statistics:

Continue reading

Last Call at the Moderate Republican Saloon

They say the room was packed and the crowd enthusiastic for Nikki Haley’s whistlestop visit to Vermont. The import of the former depends on the size of the room. Depending on configuration, the DoubleTree’s meeting rooms hold somewhere between 300 (not impressive) and 1,300 (respectable). As for enthusiasm, I watched her speech on YouTube. To me it was an ambivalent audience. The only time they were unified is when they were shouting down anti-war protesters. They didn’t seem to know exactly how to react to her very conservative talking points or her numerous attacks on Donald Trump.

I have two big takeaways from Sunday’s event. First, none of it matters because Donald Trump is winning the nomination. The GOP rigged the primary system in 2016 to favor the front-runner. The system allowed Trump to cruise to victory after taking an early lead, and it will do the same again this year. Even if Haley wins Vermont, and by all accounts she’s trailing badly here, the game is rigged against her.

And even if it wasn’t, well, the Republican primary electorate is overwhelmingly MAGA. She’s trying to sell a niche product in a mass market.

Second takeaway: The concept of “moderate Republicanism” is dead, dead, dead.

Continue reading

Just Because You Drove Off a Cliff and Landed Softly in a Grove of Trees Doesn’t Mean It Was a Good Idea to Drive Off the Cliff

We barely managed to evade another mass unhousing tonight, no thanks whatsoever to the Scott administration and only partial thanks to state lawmakers. They collectively thought it was a good idea to put a tight cap on motel vouchers and put it into effect immediately.

Technically it became effective before “immediately,” because Gov. Phil Scott has yet to sign the bill that imposes the cap. Yep, Our Glorious Leaders, going where no one has gone before, fracturing the time-space continuum. Again, as I wrote previously, I never want to hear anyone in the Statehouse cite a lack of time as an excuse for inaction. Hell, on this bill they had less than zero time and they still made it happen. Administration officials went ahead and implemented a policy that isn’t actually in law. At least not quite yet. Which might, now that I think of it, be technically illegal. But I’m not a lawyer, so.

By this (Friday) morning, the vast majority of motel operators had agreed to accept the $80 per night cap, so the vast majority of voucher clients still have roofs over their heads tonight.

Sure, an unknown but probably small number of households are without shelter. But it could have been thousands, and thankfully it wasn’t.

Who ought to get the credit? Why, Brenda Siegel, of course.

Continue reading

In Milton, Bigotry Wins a Round

Checking out candidates’ statements on community access TV is usually a formality. You expect to see people reading bland generalities from a script. You don’t expect to see something you’ve never seen before. But that’s just what happened the other day when I watched Lake Champlain Community Access TV’s offering of statements from candidates for the Milton Town School District Board.

And there, second in the rundown, was Ember Nova Quinn, who identifies as queer and uses “they/them” pronouns, pouring their heart out in despair over being made to feel unwelcome — unsafe, even — in their own community, and announcing their withdrawal from public life.

Wow. Just wow.

This is one person’s point of view and shouldn’t be taken as gospel. But it does reflect a very real and very deep divide in Milton politics. Each side accuses the other of bullying, threats, even vandalism. It’s gotten intense in the runup to Town Meeting Day elections, which effectively feature competing “slates” of conservative and liberal candidates.

Continue reading