Congratulations to Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley for her big victory in the Vermont prim — what’s that you say? She ended her campaign after losing every Super Tuesday state besides Vermont?

Oh. Well, then. As Lou Reed put it, “Something flickered for a minute, and then it vanished and was gone.”

It’s pretty clear that Haley won Vermont thanks to our wide-open primary system in which any voter can select any primary ballot. The numbers from last night show that Haley’s win was fueled by independents and Democrats wanting to stick it to Donald Trump.

I took a deep comparative dive into the 2024 and 2020 presidential primaries. Now, every election has its own dynamics so no two are directly comparable, but the numbers are overwhelming. Trump’s vote total was virtually identical: 33,139 in 2024 versus 33,019 in 2020.

But that 33,019 represented 84% of the 2020 Republican primary electorate. Last night, 33,139 only represented 45% of the vote. With the same number of votes, Trump won overwhelmingly four years ago and lost by a significant margin this time.

Now let’s take a look at some liberal strongholds, the kind of places where Republican voters are normally hard to find, comparing the 2024 primary to the 2020. Disclaimer: 2020 was a red-hot race on the Democratic side featuring Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Trump’s main competition was, um, Bill Weld. But still, the numbers are striking.

In Burlington this year, 26% of all presidential primary voters took a Republican ballot. That figure in 2020 was only 3.6%.

Other communities:

• Brattleboro: 25% of primary voters chose a Republican ballot this year versus 9% in 2020.
• East Montpelier (my little town): 49% Republican this year, 14% four years ago.
• Hartland: 55% versus 18%
• Middlebury: 39% versus 10%
• Montpelier: 25% versus 5.5%
• Norwich: 24% versus 6%
• Waterbury: 44% versus 11%
• Winooski: 31% versus 10%

Some of that can be ascribed to the dynamics of the two races. In 2020 Democratic voters were highly motivated while the Republican race was drama-free. But still. there was a huge population that participated in the Democratic primary four years ago and in the Republican primary this year.

And no, I don’t think that Hartland suddenly became a Republican stronghold while we weren’t looking. I don’t think East Montpelier, which hasn’t sent a Republican to the Vermont House in God knows how long, has suddenly gone purple. And I don’t think Republicans have made substantial gains out of thin air in places like Middlebury, or Waterbury.

Looking at all of that plus the results in the other Super Tuesday states, it seems safe to conclude that Haley’s win in Vermont was attributable to our open primary system plus many liberal voters’ desire to stick it to Trump. It doesn’t signal, in any meaningful way, the emergence of a centrist strain in the Republican electorate.

Note: Later today or tomorrow morning, I’ll be writing a separate post on Town Meeting Day results including the Burlington mayoral races and the school budget votes.