I went to Shaw’s earlier this week, and was met by this massive display of Halloween candy occupying a giant bloc of high-traffic real estate almost three months before the holiday. Thought it was funny, took a pic and posted it on The Platform Formerly Known as Twitter.

It’s awfully early to be laying in the holiday treats. But it’s rapidly getting late for those trying to restore flood-damaged homes. Cold weather is just around the corner, and with it will come “the second wave of the disaster,” as homeowners and renters who can stay where they are for now could be displaced when the leaves turn and thermometers drop toward the freezing mark.

“The second wave” is how Barre attorney John Valsangiacomo, chair of the board of Capstone Community Action, expressed his concern over what’s coming in a matter of weeks. His words ring true, and there may be no way to avoid another massive displacement on top of what we’ve already seen.

Valsangiacomo was a guest on the August 9 edition of “Vermont Viewpoint,” broadcast on WDEV Radio and now available as a podcast. The show came to you live from Nelson’s Ace Hardware in downtown Barre, where host Kevin Ellis skillfully brought us the experiences and views of civic leaders and Main Street merchants.

There is much to say about the show, as well as Ellis’ equally insightful August 2 broadcast from downtown Montpelier. For now, let’s stick with Valsangiacomo’s words of warning.

The subject was first broached by another of Ellis’ guests, Thom Lauzon, city councilor, former mayor, and perhaps Barre’s most prominent landlord. He brought the real talk:

We are eight weeks away from inclement weather when it gets cold. We know there are people in their homes who have no hot water, they have no heat. They have power and their homes are safe. … Some folks have to wait until they get their FEMA check 9to do major repairs]… In mid-September, they’re going to call their HVAC contractor and say, “I’d like to order a furnace.” By then it’s likely going to be too late.

Lauzon was not talking about the unhoused or low-income renters. No, he was focused on homeowners whose basements flooded on July 10 and 11. They have places to stay for now, Lauzon said, but that may not be true come October or November.

When they looked to close the [Red Cross] shelter at the [Barre] Auditorium, I begged them not to close it but to mothball it and keep it ready. I think — I hope I’m wrong — but I think we’re going to be in a bit of a crisis as the inclement weather shows up and folks are not ready to heat their homes.

Valsangiacomo echoed Lauzon’s concerns, noting that there were already supply chain issues before the flood. He noted that FEMA will offer two months’ rent to people temporarily unhoused — an offer that’s effectively useless. “Where are they going to go?” he said. “There’s no place for them to use that two months’ rent. There’s no available housing.”

The already critical shortage of rental housing has already been exacerbated by the flood. Demand for available rentals will skyrocket, as dislocated homeowners seek temporary places to live. We’ll get a second hit of this if cold weather arrives before people can replace ruined furnaces and water heaters.

At the same time, we have yet to reckon with the toll from the first wave. The state has published numbers of calls to the troubled 211 emergency line, but Valsangiacomo believes the real number of dispossessed is “more than double.”

His belief is credible, since his organization is boots-on-the-ground working with central Vermonters living on the edge. And that’s only the current situation. The potential “second wave” will be upon us when the initial rush of energy, dedication and resources has petered out. Both Lauzon and Valsangiacomo believe things are going to be very diffucult for months and months to come. Sadly, I think they’re right.