Tag Archives: United Van Lines

There’s Still Not a Lick of Evidence That People Are Fleeing Vermont

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We Vermonters tend to have a sunny view of ourselves and our B.L.S. Sometimes it’s justified, sometimes it’s overblown, sometimes it’s horse hockey. But there’s one consistent idea in our politics that reveals a strain of self-loathing. Funny thing is, it’s an idea that happens to be untrue.

I’m speaking of the notion that people are fleeing the state. I’ve been hearing this as long as I’ve been covering Vermont politics. It most often comes from conservative politicians bitching about high taxes. People are leaving Vermont in droves, they say, because the Democrats are out of control and taxes are too high. This is usually accompanied by an anecdote featuring an anonymous Vermonter planning or contemplating a move.

Funny thing is, I have yet to see any actual evidence for the claim. If people are fleeing Vermont, they leave no trace in the data.

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If everybody’s leaving, why are most of the moving vans inbound?

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The new year brings a seemingly never-ending flood of 50-state rankings. Some, assembled by pro-business interests, tend to rank Vermont near the bottom. Others, like Politico Magazine’s broad-based quality-of-life mashup, put Vermont near the top. Number 3, in the case of Politico.

Well, here comes United Van Lines with its own 50-state ranking, “which tracks customers’ state-to-state migration patterns.” And contrary to the standard Republican talking point — nobody wants to live here because taxes — Vermont comes in near the top. Number 3, as a matter of fact.

The United ranking is based on one single criterion: where are the moving vans headed? And in Vermont last year, there were a lot more inbound than outbound. Here’s the map.

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Okay, so how do we square this with our flat population and very real demographic crisis?

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