Conventional wisdom is that there’s an enthusiasm gap in Vermont in favor of the Republicans, and a low-turnout election will help them begin their comeback from a long dark night of the electoral soul.

There’s truth in that; but its impact will be blunted by (a) Governor Shumlin’s campaign machine and (b) the Democrats’ superior organization and database. They are devoting a whole lot of resources to selected legislative races, which will hamstring the Republicans’ efforts to gain ground.

So far, early (and scattered) reports indicate that turnout is somewhat better than expected, which should be good for the Democrats.

My caveat: I haven’t done a systematic study of past returns and trends, nor have I been traveling around the state sniffing the air and putting my ear to the ground. Just me in the metaphorical mom’s basement, sniffing the ground and putting my ear in the air.

In the race for Governor, the big question seems to be “Can Governor Shumlin get an actual majority or just a plurality?” But every time I give him something around (or below) 50%, I simply can’t imagine that many people voting for Scott Milne and Dan Feliciano. So in the end, I bump Shumlin up a little. My fearless forecast:

Shumlin 53, Milne 39, Feliciano 5, and 3% for “other.”

For Lieutenant Governor, Dean Corren’s energetic closing push will get him into the 40s, but that’s about all. The Democrats’ big drive won’t help him that much in a statewide contest because it’s so focused on key legislative races. Still, he’ll do better than Cass Gekas. Phil Scott 54, Corren 44, and 2% for “other.”

No need to forecast the races for Congress, Attorney General, Auditor, Secretary of State, or Treasurer. So, on to the Legislature.

In the state Senate, the Republicans will pick up no more than one seat, and things might remain exactly as they are now. In the absence of the Democratic organizational edge, I’d say the Repubs would win three seats or more. But I say the races in Washington and Orange Counties are not going to be as close as many think. Chittenden’s not changing. Which leaves the Repubs with two potential gains: one each in Franklin and Rutland.

(Flips coin.) Okay, a net gain of one seat for the Republicans. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dems hold serve.

In the House, I haven’t delved into specific races. But I do put a lot of stock in the Dems’ organization, and I think the Repubs will pick up no more than three seats. And as with the Senate, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dems hold serve.

If my predictions come to pass, it’ll be a positive for the Democrats — holding their ground in very tough circumstances. The Republicans will claim victory if they manage the most marginal of gains, and the media will report it as a split decision. But it’ll be a victory for the Democrats, and push the Republicans a little bit further from real competitiveness.

And if I’m wrong, I invite my Republican followers to join me here tomorrow as I tackle a hearty lunch of crow pie.