Tag Archives: Lou Reed

The Operation Was a Success, But the Patient Died

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Congratulations to Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley for her big victory in the Vermont prim — what’s that you say? She ended her campaign after losing every Super Tuesday state besides Vermont?

Oh. Well, then. As Lou Reed put it, “Something flickered for a minute, and then it vanished and was gone.”

It’s pretty clear that Haley won Vermont thanks to our wide-open primary system in which any voter can select any primary ballot. The numbers from last night show that Haley’s win was fueled by independents and Democrats wanting to stick it to Donald Trump.

I took a deep comparative dive into the 2024 and 2020 presidential primaries. Now, every election has its own dynamics so no two are directly comparable, but the numbers are overwhelming. Trump’s vote total was virtually identical: 33,139 in 2024 versus 33,019 in 2020.

But that 33,019 represented 84% of the 2020 Republican primary electorate. Last night, 33,139 only represented 45% of the vote. With the same number of votes, Trump won overwhelmingly four years ago and lost by a significant margin this time.

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Last Call at the Moderate Republican Saloon

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They say the room was packed and the crowd enthusiastic for Nikki Haley’s whistlestop visit to Vermont. The import of the former depends on the size of the room. Depending on configuration, the DoubleTree’s meeting rooms hold somewhere between 300 (not impressive) and 1,300 (respectable). As for enthusiasm, I watched her speech on YouTube. To me it was an ambivalent audience. The only time they were unified is when they were shouting down anti-war protesters. They didn’t seem to know exactly how to react to her very conservative talking points or her numerous attacks on Donald Trump.

I have two big takeaways from Sunday’s event. First, none of it matters because Donald Trump is winning the nomination. The GOP rigged the primary system in 2016 to favor the front-runner. The system allowed Trump to cruise to victory after taking an early lead, and it will do the same again this year. Even if Haley wins Vermont, and by all accounts she’s trailing badly here, the game is rigged against her.

And even if it wasn’t, well, the Republican primary electorate is overwhelmingly MAGA. She’s trying to sell a niche product in a mass market.

Second takeaway: The concept of “moderate Republicanism” is dead, dead, dead.

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