Category Archives: 2014 election

Weird Uncle Pete and the Fringe Brigade

Just about every family has that one relative. The one you try to stay away from. The one you never ever ever talk politics/religion/race with. The one who drinks too much, or gives creepily extended hugs. For our purposes, let’s call him Weird Uncle Pete.

Not Peter Diamondstone.

Not Peter Diamondstone.

As uncomfortable as Weird Uncle Pete makes everyone, he still gets invited to Thanksgiving dinner. Because he’s family.

But that doesn’t mean you have to invite him to a gubernatorial debate.

Well, it does, but only in Vermont. There, occupying the designated Fringe Candidate chair at Tuesday night’s debate, was Peter Diamondstone, perpetual candidate of the Liberty Union Party. (At the first debate, it was Hempily Peyton.)

And I have to say, as admirable our attention to inclusion may appear, people like Weird Uncle Pete add absolutely nothing to a high-stakes political debate. They occupy space, they take up time, and they limit the opportunity for real interaction between the candidates who have a prayer of actually being elected. Their inclusion is a disservice to the voting public.

Now, I don’t mind if Peyton and Diamondstone get one round. But I sure as hell hope I don’t have to hear either one of them again this year.

This ain’t the Special Olympics, folks. Everyone doesn’t get a ribbon for participation. I don’t mind that Vermont’s ballot access law is extremely lenient, but you don’t deserve a place on center stage or 20+ minutes of my time just because you got your name on the ballot.

Emily Peyton got on the ballot by collecting 500 signatures. Diamondstone got on the ballot because in 2012, the Republicans and Progressives didn’t run a candidate for Secretary of State, which left the Liberty Union candidate alone against Jim Condos. And of course, she got enough votes to guarantee her party ballot access for 2014. Diamondstone didn’t do a damn thing to “merit” a seat at the debate.

You may think me undemocratic, but I ask you: what is the purpose of these debates? I argue that they exist to serve the voting public. And the voting public is best served by an uncluttered presentation by candidates who, again, actually have a prayer of becoming Governor. Debates are designed to help the undecided make up their minds. The vast majority of those undecideds are never, in a million years, going to even consider voting for the likes of Weird Uncle Pete and Aunt Hempily.

We only get four gubernatorial debates this year. We can’t afford to hand them out like participation ribbons.

The Good Ship Milne runs aground

Oh dear. Oh wow. That debate last night. (The gubernatorial debate on VPR featuring Governor Shumlin, Republican Scott Milne, Libertarian Dan Feliciano, and the Liberty Union’s Peter Diamondstone.)

Lots to talk about, but the main takeaway is this: Scott Milne is losing it. His performance was so bad that, I hear, it sparked some back-channel sentiment among Republicans to get him out of the race and leave it to Dan Feliciano.

I don’t think that sentiment will turn into action, because in the long run it’d be more embarrassing to have no Republican candidate than to have a really bad one. But still, it shows you how bad it was.

How bad was it? The Freeploid’s Nancy Remsen, in referring to a question Milne asked of Governor Shumlin, characterized it as a “strange question.”

And she was right.

It’d be fun to provide a tally of how many times Milne said that an issue was “complicated” or that he was “running a campaign of ideas” without providing any ideas. But a couple of excerpts will, I think, give a more complete sense of the debacle.

After a couple of opening-round questions, the candidates were given the opportunity to ask a question of one of their fellows. Milne made a complete botch of it:

Milne: I’ve heard from four different people that therte was an emergency sort of last-minute called meeting Saturday night after that debate with Democratic leaders in Windsor County that you attended. I’m just curious, at that meeting, how many folks that were there to sort of help you regroup after that debate worked for the state directly or worked for nonprofits or advocacy groups that are funded by state dollars prinarily?

This is the question Remsen called “strange,” and she was dead-on. Shumlin’s response?

Shumlin: Scott, I’m totally unaware of what you’re talking about. I can tell you what I did after the Tunbridge Fair, I went up and spoke with state employees, the VSEA, in Killington, I made one other campaign stop, and I went to the Windsor County Democratic dinner in Hartland. It was a very good event, and I went home. So the meeting you’re referring to did not happen.

Milne: Okay, my bad. Thank you.

Moderator Bob Kinzel: No follow-up question for that?

Milne: Nope.

Do I have to explain how awful that was? In a four-way debate, Milne would get few opportunities for a direct interaction with the Governor. He took is best chance and blew it on a hot rumor he’d heard about an alleged event that didn’t happen, and even if it did, what the hell difference would it make? The best he could have hoped for was that Shumlin would decompensate and admit he’d had a secret powwow to strategize a counterattack against the Milne Menace with a roomful of state employees. And then what would Milne have? A “gotcha” moment that would do nothing to illustrate policy differences between the two.

As it was, he looked like a fool.

Next, Shumlin asked MIlne a question. He noted that Milne repeatedly calls Shumlin “radical and progressive.” He then ticked off several of his initiatives — universal pre-K, college tuition, downtown revitalization, fighting opiate addiction, and the GMO bill, among others — and asked Milne which ones he disagreed with.

And here, in all its incoherent glory, is Milne’s response.

Milne: Since you used all my time asking questions, I’ll try to be brief. I also want to give a shout out to Peter Diamondstone, just so the listeners know, Peter and I are doing this without notes. Dan’s reading questions from a paper, as is Governor Shumlin, so I’m happy to answer questions with my brain, not with what I wrote down ahead of time to bring into the test.

I think the GMO labeling bill is a good example of the radical, progressive management of a bill by your administration.

Shumlin: Would you repeal it?

Milne: I didn’t say I’d repeal it. I’m not entirely positive I would have vetoed it if I was in your shoes.

Shumlin: So you’re against it but you’re for it?

(I have to pause here and just say I really hope, purely for the entertainment value, that there’s a one-on-one debate between Milne and Shumlin sometime during the campaign. It’d truly be a Bambi vs. Godzilla moment.)

Milne: No, no. Um, I could do the flip-flop thing on you. I’m running a debate on ideas, I’m running a campaign of ideas, I’m not doing the sound bite flip-flop stuff. You flip-flopped on, you know, you’re totally doubling down on single-payer on Tuesday when you’re with your Democratic announcement, then you’re on a statewide radio program three days later, and you’re not going to go forward with it unless it’s goig to be good for the economy, so if you want to do the sound bite kind of campaign, we can do that.

What I said very clearly is, you managed that bill in a radical, progressive way. We could have gotten the same results in a much more business-friendly way that would have done great things to contributing to a business-friendly environment in Vermont which would be good for business, which would be good for government, because government is funded by business.

Yyyyyyyeah.

All I can say is, if you can listen to that mess and conclude that Scott Milne is your man for Governor, then I’ve got no words.

Hey look everybody! Scott Milne has a plan! …oh wait, never mind.

A moment of excitement on my Twitter feed today, courtesy of cigar-smoking VTGOP “Victory Coordinator” Jeff Bartley:

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 2.59.30 PM

I could hardly believe my eyes. And I couldn’t wait to click on the link, to a story by WCAX’s Kyle Midura.

After weeks of alluding to his campaign of ideas, Milne provided more details Thursday about his call for a two-year cap on the state property tax.

Well, huzzah. The cap idea has been criticized, by me and many others, as imposing a hard spending cap on local schools. Governor Shumlin said it would erode local control. Midura says that Milne offered a rejoinder to this criticism:

Milne says the cost would shift to other taxes unless schools cut spending. The income tax is most likely — a legislative proposal to move all school costs to that source stalled before lawmakers left Montpelier last May.

It would “shift to other taxes” because the state is legally bound to provide funding to the schools, and if the property tax doesn’t cover it, then it’ll have to come from somewhere. That’s an obvious statement of fact, Mr. Milne. What else you got?

Milne says he would leave how to fill the gap his proposal would create up to legislators.

He is not sharing cost-cutting plans, at least not yet.

“We’ll be talking about our strategies for lowering school costs clearly over the next few weeks,” Milne said.

Awwwww, god DAMN.

A more accurate headline would read, “GOP candidate Milne provides no details of property tax plan.”

The excitement deflates. The Scott Milne Policy Watch continues.

Beware the fast-talking gentlemen bearing snake oil

Must be fall. Traditional time for fairs and festivals around our state. And one of the traditional accompaniments to these events is the patent-medicine man, selling his Secret Natural Herbal Remedies, good for whatever ailments may befall Man, Woman, Child, Horse, and Dog.

And hightailing it to the next town before too many locals get sick from the dubious contents of those thick, opaque bottles.

Well, here come our snake-oil salesmen of politics, hawking their Foolproof Solutions To Our School Funding Ills. Just a tablespoon of my tincture, they cry, and all your problems are solved.

ambition-pillsOn the back of one horse-drawn cart we find a tall slender redhead brandishing a bottle of Olde Mahatma’s Secret Curative, a formula crafted by the Wise Men of the Far East (a.k.a. Pomfret), a stern purgative guaranteed to cleanse the system of blockages, growths, tumors and humors of all sorts, paving the way for a fresh start in a bright new tomorrow.

Behind all the label’s mumbo-jumbo, Olde Mahatma’s Curative is a simple solution with only one active ingredient: a two-year freeze on property taxes. This seemingly harsh treatment pays no heed to complications or practicalities; it just reams out the entire waterworks.

Over here, across the town square, is a dark-haired figure of serious mien offering Doc Feliciano’s Ache-Be-Gone, an elixir which, taken internally or applied externally*, is strong enough to banish every trace of pain from any cause, including lumbago, neuralgia, ague, impetigo, quinsy, and The Screws. Doc F has used all his extensive scientific training to fashion a singular combination of analgesics, potions, and elixirs, including some that have been foolishly prohibited by unimaginative authorities.

*You choose the method and dosage, for each man is the best judge of his own medicinal needs. 

Doc Feliciano promises to banish all pain and discomfort from the unrelenting pressure of property taxes through the indubitable mechanisms of the Free Market. His solution for a public school system with too few students and rising costs? A whole lot more schools! Free Choice For All! Which will, somehow, magically, bring down the cost of the system.

My friends, you would be wise to eschew the easy blandishments of the political snake-oil salesman. Complicated problems require time and care, and nuanced approaches by learned practitioners. You will not find the answers to your educational troubles at the bottom of a murky brown bottle! Keep your hard-earned money in your pocket, and let the peddlers be on their way.

Janssen Willhoit: a correction and amplification

In my previous post, I reported the criminal past of Janssen Willhoit, Republican candidate for the legislature in St. Johnsbury. He served time in a Kentucky prison for running an investment scam, and failing to make restitution to his victims.

In my post, I wrote the following:

… he has not revealed his troubles; his campaign bio carefully omits any hint of his criminal offense and incarceration, even as it trumpets his advocacy for inmates’ rights.

My conclusion: His offense doesn’t disqualify him from public service, but the voters deserve to know and have the opportunity to make their own judgments. It appears to me that the candidate could tell a powerful and believable story of redemption. But he needs to explain why he deserves the public’s trust.

I’ve been informed by a keen observer in St. J that this is not true: he has been openly speaking of his experiences. From the May 14 Caledonian-Record:

… His path to St. Johnsbury includes being a financial broker, an independent investment advisor, going to prison, and being raped in prison. Being raped earned him time in the “hole” which meant he missed his parole hearing. During his time in prison Janssen committed himself to helping people in need. He started by helping prisoners learn to read, while he was still in prison, and being sent back to the hole for starting a “reading gang.”

Janssen eventually received an executive pardon from the Kentucky governor, and then became instrumental in getting many changes to the Kentucky prison system — including making same-sex rapes a crime. There is a connection between Kentucky and Vermont — Vermont houses inmates in Kentucky and Janssen learned of Vermont’s work with prisoner rights.

Unfortunately for me and for the truth, the Caledonian-Record’s content is behind a paywall, and is not referenced on Internet search engines.

In my searches about Willhoit, I could find no hint that he had revealed his past. His website contains no clue of it. I tried to be thorough, I tried to be factual, and I tried to be fair.

And I failed. For that, I apologize to Mr. Willhoit.

At the end of my post, I wrote the following:

… the people of St. Johnsbury should know about it, and he should fully explain the circumstances of his offense, whether he has repaid his victims, and if not, why not. After that, the voters can make an informed choice.

In fact, he had already done that. He has been forthcoming about his past, and the voters can make an informed choice.

Which leaves me with one unanswered question: did the person who gave me the tip about Willhoit know that he’d been honest about his past? If not, then no harm, no foul. If so, then I’ve been the victim of a dirty political trick. In the future, I’ll try to be more careful about such things.

How pertinent is a candidate’s past? A case study

Update: Some of what I write in this post is not true. The candidate has, in fact, spoken publicly about his past. Please see the following correction for the full story and my apology. 

The other day I got a tip. It was about a candidate for the legislature who had  supposedly been charged in another state with running an investment scam, pled guilty to a reduced charge, and served time in prison. Since his release, he has apparently kept his nose clean. Indeed, he became something of an inmates’ rights activist.

He later moved to Vermont, where he has continued on the straight and narrow. He’s now running for State House. He hasn’t revealed his criminal past, nor has anyone reported it, although it can be found through a simple Google search.

The story is more complicated than the original tip would suggest. And I pondered whether I should let it alone. After all, he seems to have reformed himself, and everyone deserves a second chance.

In the end, after much thought, I decided to write this post. The deciding factors: His offense was a serious one — he was accused of bilking investors of as much as $150,000. This happened relatively recently, roughly ten years ago. He was under court order to repay his victims, and as far as I can tell he has failed to do so. And he has not revealed his troubles; his campaign bio carefully omits any hint of his criminal offense and incarceration, even as it trumpets his advocacy for inmates’ rights.

My conclusion: His offense doesn’t disqualify him from public service, but the voters deserve to know and have the opportunity to make their own judgments. It appears to me that the candidate could tell a powerful and believable story of redemption. But he needs to explain why he deserves the public’s trust.

The candidate in question is Janssen Willhoit, Republican hopeful for the State House in St. Johnsbury. His story:

In June 2004, Willhoit was arrested on charges of “theft by deception.” His victims included the mayor of Stanford, Kentucky. The details:

The investment scam was first reported by Stanford Mayor Eddie Carter, said [Stanford police detective Rick] Edwards. Carter had reportedly invested more than $50,000 of his personal money with Willhoit’s false company, Net City. Net City, which promised investors high interest rates, was supposedly a subsidiary of National City Bank. But when Carter called to check on his account, he was told the number was a phony.

… False investment paperwork had lulled the victims into trusting Net City by indicating the company was a affiliated with Met Life Insurance companies and of legitimate financial protection companies, Securities Investor Protection Corp. and NASD. Officials from the bank and Met Life confirmed that Net City was never an associate during that time, police report.

… Investors’ cash is thought to have been used to support Willhoit’s comfortable lifestyle before his arrest.

In August, Mayor Carter filed a civil suit against Willhoit. He quickly won, and was awarded $55,000 in restitution and damages.

In November 2004, Willhoit agreed to a plea deal that would have let him avoid prison if he repaid his victims. The first step in that process was to post a $10,000 bond, followed by monthly payments of $600.

But in December, he was back in court:

Janssen Willhoit, 25, who swindled approximately $95,000 from three Stanford residents through a phony company, was sentenced to 10 years in prison with the possibility of shock probation.

… Willhoit faced Circuit Judge Robert Gillum without having paid the promised money. Both the judge and Assistant Commonwealth’s Attorney Daryl Day expressed their frustration with the development.

“He doesn’t have the $10,000,” said [defense attorney Mitchell] Berryman. “It leaves us in a quandary.”

“It doesn’t leave me in a quandary,” Gillum said. “I guess he’s going to serve some time then. He’s obviously not going to meet the conditions of probation… He lied to the court.”

In February 2005 Willhoit was back before Judge Gillum to request “shock probation,” which is sometimes granted inmates — usually first-time offenders —  after they’ve been in prison for a short time. The idea is that being behind bars might “shock” a person into changing his ways. But the judge wasn’t buying it. 

Lincoln Circuit Judge Robert Gillum, who handed down Willhoit’s sentence last year, again had stern words for the swindler. Gillum said Willhoit lied to the court in the past by promising to, but not posting, a $10,000 bail to be used as restitution money. Gillum said Willhoit was a flight risk, despite his claims otherwise, and denied the motion.

Screen Shot 2014-09-21 at 10.01.59 PMWillhoit went back to prison. I haven’t been able to determine exactly when he was released. He was definitely out no later than 2009; in February 2010 he testified before a state legislative committee in favor of a bill to allow former inmates to regain their voting rights. He described himself as a former inmate. (Accompanying image is from the video of his testimony.)

Later that year he moved to Vermont and began studies at Vermont Law School. After graduating, he moved to St. Johnsbury and joined the law firm of Willey & Power.

Earlier this year, Willhoit launched a campaign for State House. In the August primary, he came in second in a three-way race for two Republican nominations, advancing him to the November election.

Willhoit’s campaign bio barely mentions his life before 2010. It does boast of his volunteer efforts after Tropical Storm Irene, his work as a public defender in the Northeast Kingdom, his active membership in a local church, and his work mentoring prisoners.

It also proclaims his commitment “to serving the least among us” without ever mentioning that he used to be one of the least among us.

As I said earlier, I don’t believe that Willhoit’s criminal past or his apparent failure to make restitution should disqualify him from the Legislature. (Insert snide comment about the probity of State House denizens here.) But the people of St. Johnsbury should know about it, and he should fully explain the circumstances of his offense, whether he has repaid his victims, and if not, why not. After that, the voters can make an informed choice.

Dems endorse Corren, but their assistance will be limited

The Democratic Party State Committee, meeting today in Montpelier, formally endorsed Dean Corren, the Progressive Candidate for Lieutenant Governor, who had won the Democratic nomination in the August primary as a write-in candidate.

The vote was 31 for Corren and 4 against. I’d presume that most or all of the “no” votes concerned Corren’s strong support of ridgeline wind power. At his debate with incumbent Phil Scott, Corren referred dismissively to the “imagined horrors” of wind farms.

All those who spoke at the meeting were strongly supportive of Corren; Windham County chair John Wilmerding called him “a crucial addition to our slate” because of his advocacy of single-payer health care.

However, thanks to potential conflicts with campaign finance law, the Democrats will not share their database or voter lists with Corren, and he will not take part in the Dems’ Coordinated Campaign.

Some Dems had earlier voiced concern about sharing the party’s robust data with a longtime Progressive who might well pass it on to his fellow Progs. Democratic Party officials said there would be no sharing — but not because of concerns about sharing, but because of legal limits on tangible support to a candidate who has accepted public financing, which Corren has.

Under the law, a candidate who takes public financing cannot accept additional contributions. And because of “the proprietary nature” of the party’s data, said Executive Director Julia Barnes, sharing the information or adding him to the Coordinated Campaign would be considered a donation to the Corren campaign.

There was one hint of Dem/Prog friction. Former party staffer and candidate for Burlington City Council Ryan Emerson McLaren* noted Corren’s vocal support for Democratic candidates, and urged Corren to make the same plea to the Progressives in Burlington who, Emerson said, might nominate a candidate to oppose Burlington’s “fantastic mayor” Miro Weinberger. Emerson asked Corren to urge the city’s Progs to support Weinberger’s bid for a second term. At the meeting, Corren offered no immediate response; nor did he really have the opportunity to do so.

*Please note corrected error: it was not Ryan Emerson, but Ryan McLaren, who raised the Burlington issue. My mistake, and my apologies to Ryan Emerson. 

One other tidbit of news from the meeting: Three statewide Democratic officeholders who won their respective Republican nominations in the August primary because they finished first in write-in votes have all decided to decline the VTGOP nomination. Auditor Doug Hoffer had previously announced he would decline; Secretary of State Jim Condos and Treasurer Beth Pearce have now joined him.

Which means a bunch of big embarrassing vacancies on the Republican ballot this fall. Good times.

Mahatma’s meltdown

Scott Milne, the man who famously called himself “Gandhi-like,” is finding that it’s awfully hard being a pacifist when the bullets are flying. He made an unplanned call to WDEV’s Mark Johnson Show on Friday morning and… well… spent about 20 minutes ranting about the media’s unfair treatment of the Milne campaign. And specifically impugning the good name of Our State Pundit Laureate, Eric Davis. That will never do, Mr. Milne.

Davis had been a guest during the first hour of the program. He and Johnson discussed the gubernatorial race. The consensus was that Governor Shumlin had left himself vulnerable because of various scandals and issues. And that it’s too bad the Republicans didn’t have a better candidate, because Scott Milne had made a mess of things.

Apparently it was enough to make even a Gandhi-like person’s blood boil. A little while later in the show, Milne called in to rebut Davis’ analysis. Or to slap it around, anyway. At great length and in pretty extreme terms: at one point, he accused Davis of “laughing at me.” Sorry, Mahatma, I don’t think I’ve ever heard Eric Davis laugh at anyone. If he’s anything, he’s a straight arrow, cautious to a fault.

Here’s a sample of Mahatma’s Meltdown:

When you’re bringing people on the air that influence people with, ah, you know, tenured professorships from elite institutions, you need to ask the tough questions and bring out the contradictions in what they said. If you look back on Mr. Davis’ track record of picking things in Vermont over the last few elections, it’s not stellar. And I think it’s a form of, uh, you know, uh, you know, journalistic malpractice. You just let him get away with saying some of those things.

I’m sure the folks at Middlebury College are happy to be considered an “elite institution,” but otherwise, good God. Eric Davis’ track record hasn’t been perfect, but it’s been awfully good. That’s why he’s the go-to political analyst for Vermont media. He knows his stuff, he’s conscientious, he doesn’t take chances, and he certainly doesn’t engage in gratuitous attacks. He has earned the respect he is given by the media and by news consumers.

Milne railed against the notion that his campaign lacks ideas. Which isn’t accurate; what we say is that he lacks policy positions and proposals. Milne’s definition of “idea” includes such things as “Peter Shumlin spends too much time out of state” and “the economy isn’t growing quickly enough.” What Milne is criticized for is his real, true, honest-to-God lack of proposals. He tries to make this a virtue by saying, on issue after issue, that he’s going to get all parties together and work out the best solution.

That’s awfully thin gruel. And besides, his current definition of ideas is at odds with what he was saying earlier on: that he would spend August attacking Shumlin, and start rolling out his own proposals in September. He hasn’t delivered on Part 2. “Give me 30 days,” he said on July 25. It’s been 50 days since then.

Milne also repeated one of the more extraordinary statements he’s made during the campaign:

I am uncomfortable about calling people and asking them for money to support a public policy campaign, and feeling 100% like I don’t owe them something afterwards.

I guess you could say that has a certain freakish nobility. But it’s a fantasy: Politicians have to raise money. Yes, there’s too much money in politics. But Milne has raised a laughably small amount — and virtually all of it from his family, friends, and his own back pocket.

Now we know why. He doesn’t want to ask for money, and he doesn’t want to be obligated.

Somebody should. tell Phil Scott about this. He’s been raising money right and left from contractors and gas companies and rich Vermonters and his vast network of cronies, and insisting that it doesn’t make any difference in his politics. Scott Milne would beg to differ.

Somebody should also tell the Scott Milne of midsummer about this. At the time, he said he planned to raise and spend about $200,000, which would be enough to wage an “unconventional campaign.” As of early September, he’d raised about 20% of that total. And since then, his full-time professional campaign manager has resigned. And we haven’t seen any TV ads or mailings or yard signs or any other tangible measures of an adequately resourced organization.

Milne was upset Eric Davis’ characterization of his campaign as “running on fumes.” He said, “If [Davis] hasn’t talked to my bank, he has no way of saying that.” And he pointed to his paid staff of five people as evidence he had money.

And then he contradicted himself.

We’ve got a strategy. Granted, it’s not perfect. I’m going to make mistakes. But I think our strategy is, you know, we’re running an insurgent campaign. We’re going to use our lack of money as best we can as an asset.

“Our lack of money.” Yep, he said it.

And about this “insurgent campaign” stuff. Yes, Milne is running an unconventional campaign. And yes, Eric Davis and Mark Johnson and me and all the rest of the punditocracy are basing our judgments on political convention: you have to take time to build name recognition, you have to generate news coverage, you have to have a robust infrastructure from the central office to the grassroots, you have to have a decent amount of money to run advertisements and do mailings and staff phone banks and print signs and all that other stuff of retail politics. You have to have ideas and positions that give people positive reasons to vote for you. You need a certain capacity for public speaking and pressing the flesh and handling the media.

And, preferably, you need a track record of accomplishment in the public sector.

Scott Milne has none of that. And he’s made a bunch of obvious blunders.

And so, when measured against every available standard for judging a campaign, Milne comes up short.

Now, if his “insurgent campaign” taps into a vast unseen reservoir of support, then all us conventional thinkers will get our asses kicked on November 4.

And I, for one, will be more than willing to admit I was wrong.

But I am extremely confident that I’m not wrong.

Of course, if Milne loses it’ll be Eric Davis’ fault.

What I need are people who want change and balance in Montpelier, to be naive enough to believe that they can make a difference by voting. And having people like Eric Davis that don’t think that, there’s a  lot of that, but somebody like you giving him a microphone week after week, when he’s got a track record he has of saying things that are factually inaccurate, I believe he purports an awful lot of opinions like they’re facts and you let him get away with it, and I don’t think that’s fair.

He went off the rails in mid-sentence there, but his point was that Eric Davis’ negativity was going to keep him from building momentum, and cause him to lose the election.

Sigh.

Like I’ve said before, pundits and reporters and even little old partisan bloggers like me simply don’t have that kind of influence. The vast majority of voters have already made up their minds. And the rest of ’em won’t spend the next seven weeks poring over media coverage of the campaign. The crowd of political junkies who pay a lot of attention to this stuff is a very small crowd indeed.

No, Mahatma, Eric Davis won’t kill your insurgency by the power of his punditry. Peter Shumlin will kill it with his superior organization, warchest, and advantages of incumbency. The Vermont Republican Party will kill it with its nonexistent grassroots organization, lack of resources, and internal divisions. The voters will kill it because a solid majority of them are liberal or progressive, and the Democrats have a built-in advantage.

And Scott Milne will kill it with his lack of political experience and smarts, and his poor performance on the public stage.

By all conventional measures, Scott Milne has run a terrible campaign. And I’m a guy who, when Milne first came on the scene, had some hope that he’d turn out to be a solid representative of moderate Republicanism. If he were doing a good job, I’d be reporting as such. But he’s not.

The Scott Milne Policy Watch Continues

It’s beginning to seem like a distant memory, or perhaps just a fever dream.

Remember when Scott Milne promised to roll out his platform in September?

If you do, it’s probably because I keep reminding you.

The Ghost Campaign in the flesh

The Ghost Campaign in the flesh

Well, here it is September 19th, and the only shred of policy we’ve gotten is an ill-thought-out proposal to freeze property taxes for two years while we figure out a new system. No hint of how local schools are supposed to cope with rising costs for salary, benefits, and energy, among others. And no clues about the kind of system Milne would like to implement.

Anyway, on Thursday Milne made an appearance before “30 people” at the Colchester-Milton Rotary. (I wonder hwo many left after the raffle and before the guest speaker.) And perhaps out of sympathy, Seven Days sent reporter Mark Davis to cover it. 

Which produced this nugget:

Milne offered few specifics of his agenda. At various times, he told the 30 people in the crowd that he would release his own plans for health care, education and job creation in the coming weeks.

Cough.

“In the coming weeks”?

Weeks?

WEEKS?

Will somebody please remind Our Man Mahatma that Election Day is only six and a half weeks away?  I’m concerned that his Staff Fabricator may have convinced him the election is actually in November 2015.

The most significant thing about Governor Shumlin’s first TV ad of 2014

The Shumlin campaign has taken to the airwaves with a 30-second commercial that features real-life Vermonters who have benefited from Shumlin initiatives. The aim of the ad is to remind viewers of the administration’s many accomplishments — to counteract the stream of bad news about Vermont Health Connect and the Department of Children and Families, and to remind liberal voters that the Governor has, indeed, delivered on many of his promises.

All he needs is rainbows and unicorns.

All he needs is rainbows and unicorns.

Pretty standard stuff, and it’s been duly reported in the media. But they haven’t noticed* the most significant thing about the launch: its timing.

*Correction: All but one of them failed to notice. Sevan Days’ Paul Heintz reported it two days before I did. That’s why they call him The Huntsman.

In 2012, the Shumlin campaign didn’t take to the airwaves until roughly two weeks before Election Day.

This year, the campaign hits your TV screens almost a full month earlier.

According to campaign finance reports, the Shumlin camp spent $125,000 on ad buys in 2012. Campaign manager Scott Coriell isn’t saying how much they’ll spend this year, but it figures to be a lot more.  They’ll be filling airtime for six weeks instead of two, so it’s fair to guess that they’ll triple their spending this year. Or more.

So, why?

In 2012 Shumlin faced an underfunded, underorganized, mismanaged opponent. Shumiin’s re-election was never in doubt. This year, he faces one opponent who’s far worse in all three categories, and another who represents a fringe viewpoint with a proven track record of appealing to a sliver of the electorate. Recent polls (and deeply flawed polls at that) notwithstanding, his re-election is once again in the bag.

But the Governor isn’t aiming his campaign at the broad electorate. He’s trying to pump up the base and generate higher turnout by core Democratic voters. Hence the reminders of popular Democratic initiatives.

If he can get a pure majority of the vote — at least 50% plus one — he’ll have a lot of political capital to spend in next year’s debate over single-payer health care.

But if he wins with a plurality and, worse case, he gets fewer votes than the Republican and Libertarian candidates combined, he’ll have a lot less pull with the Legislature. And right now, he’s polling in the mid-40s. He needs a boost.

Plus, of course, the higher his vote total, the more Dems and Progs will ride his coattails to victory. And he’ll need every liberal vote he can get, if single-payer is to pass next year.

That’s the significance of the early TV launch this year.