As I have noted previously, 2024 has been a barn-burner of a time for state Senate fundraising. Thanks largely to the Barons of Burlington writing bushels of four-figure checks and Democratic donors striving to keep pace, a lot of money has gone into some potentially close Senate races.

Some candidates were clearly taken by surprise at the amounts raised, because they’ve got a lot left with precious little time to spend it. The result: Senate hopefuls have made a blizzard of mass media buys in the second half of October, even as statewide campaigns have seemingly ended major expenditures. (Since Phil Scott and John Rodgers made their big radio splurge on October 28, there have only been two mass media filings by statewide candidates, and they add up to less than $2,000.)

But the Senate, that’s a different story. The mass media reports continue to come flying in. Mostly. There have been no late spends in Franklin or Windham, where the incumbents are safe as houses. (Lamoille’s Richard Westman just rolled in on October 31 with $7,303 spent on postcards and online ads.)

At the other end of the scale we find two districts not known for high rollers: Caledonia and Orleans, where longtime Democrats Jane Kitchel and Bobby Starr are retiring and every major-party candidate has spent tens of thousands of dollars. The number-one late spender on our list: Rep. Katherine Sims of Orleans, with $16,417 spent on mass media since October 15. Her Republican counterpart, Samuel Douglass, has spent $4,705, so late spending in Orleans totals more than $21,000. In Caledonia, Democrat Amanda Cochrane has spent $11,242 while Republican Rep. Scott Beck has laid out $6,603, for a district total of nearly $18,000.

I guess there’s at least one economic sector booming in the Kingdom.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the late reports is Bennington, where Republican Joe Gervais has spent $12,674 on mass media since mid-October and conservative independent Lawrence “Spike” Whitmire has spent $6,265, for a district total close to $19,000. The two Democrats, Rep. Seth Bongartz and Robert Plunkett, have not spent anything on mass media in the same period.

Bennington exemplifies a trend in the late activity: Republicans have been far more spendy than Democrats, although the disparity is somewhat masked by Sims and Cochrane. Republican Senatorial candidates since mid-October: $73,759. Democrats: $44,308. But $27,659 of that has been spent by Sims and Cochrane alone! All the other Democratic Senate candidates have combined to spend $16,647 in the late window.

Could it be… a sign of confidence among Democrats? That’s a big part of the explanation, to be sure. Take Addison, where the two Republicans have spent more than $10,000 since October 15 while Democratic Sen. Ruth Hardy has made a single buy of $1,230 and Sen. Chris Bray has spent nothing. (If Bray was running scared earlier, he’s gotten over it now.) Or look at Chittenden North, where Republican Rep. Chris Mattos has spent $6,357 while incumbent Dem Irene Wrenner hasn’t spent a dime. In Grand Isle, Republican Rep. Patrick Brennan has spent $4,454 while incumbent Dem Andy Julow hasn’t filed any mass media reports at all.

Out of the 15 Senate districts, Democrats have outspent Republicans on late mass media in only four — Caledonia, Orleans, Rutland and Windsor. In Rutland, the only Dem who’s fundraised at all, Marsha Cassel, has spent $5,752, while the three Republican incumbents combined to spend $4,640. In Windsor, the only Democratic non-incumbent, Joe Major, has spent $4,429 on late media buys and Sen. Alison Clarkson has chipped in $1,275 for ads touting the three Democratic candidates (Clarkson, Major, Sen. Becca White) as a slate. Otherwise, there are a whole lot of Dems who see no need to break open their piggy banks for a last desperate push.

This flurry of activity is made possible by very healthy cash holdings. As of the October 15 reporting deadline, these candidates all had five-figure balances: Beck $27,440, Sims $26,925, Douglass $21,789, Brennan $19,010, Gervais $14,299, Cassel $12,825, Cochrane $11,365. Incumbent Sen. Mark MacDonald of Orange had almost $10,000 on hand, thanks mainly to spending a mere $803 before making a late mass media expenditure of $4,583 on “Media — Graphic Design,” whatever that means.

But enough dollar signs. What are they spending it on? The predominant answer is postcards. Thousands upon thousands of postcards. Soooo many postcards, most of ’em destined for a quick trip to the recycle bin. A grand total of $67,564 in the past two weeks on designing, printing and mailing those goddamn things.

Mailers are a traditional way of getting your message out, but they’re definitely a blunt instrument. With so many votes already cast (we’re closing in on 200,000 votes in the bag, likely more than half of total turnout), and with all the charm worn off the ritual reception/disposal of political mailers, it seems more like a way to clear out some cash so it looks like your donors didn’t waste their money than a sound campaign strategy.

Speaking of blunt instruments, how about $12,254 spent on newspaper advertising? Again, reaching a lot of folks who’ve already voted. Also, given the fallen status of the medium, not really reaching that many folks at all.

More than twice as much went to the digital space, a total of $29,386 on last-minute ad buys. That covers a lot of ground, from Facebook to Front Porch Forum. (Only three candidates, Sens. Ruth Hardy and Richard Westman and Addison hopeful Landel Cochrane, bought ads on FPF, which strikes me as a great way to reach engaged Vermonters. Throughout the cycle, Dems have taken to FPF far more often than Repubs, presumably because some conservatives complain about being “censored” on the site. I think they call that cutting off your nose to spite your face.) Much of the digital money went to out-of-state consultancies that made the actual buys, so we don’t know where on the Interwebs the money went.

Out-of-state consultancies are another common theme in the late mass media filings. Both Democrats and Republicans, if they have more money than time, have resorted to the one-stop-shopping and larger capacity the big boys can offer, bypassing the services of Vermont-based print shops. Simpler to just call up Battleground Strategies (D.C., if you’re a Republican with serious money to burn) Spectrum Marketing (NH, numerous Republicans), Bridge Communications (CT, several Democrats) or 40 North Advisory (PA, Katherine Sims’ favorite contractor).

Or the mysterious Don’t AFK, LLC, a consultancy based in McHenry, Illinois, northwest of Chicago, used by Gov. Phil Scott for polling and by Hart and Mattos for robo-calls. In addition to the oddness of its name, the firm doesn’t have a website or any discernible online footprint. The only place I can find a mention of it is the Illinois Secretary of State’s business registry, which lists an address in what looks like a residential neighborhood. The only contact information is for the listed “manager,” whose address is the same as Don’t AFK’s. Is it a front, or what? And how did it wind up billing Phil Scott’s campaign for thousands of dollars?

Well, this turned out to be quite the notebook dump, but I found a lot of interesting information and, well, if you’re still reading then you must think it’s interesting as well. And you won’t find it anywhere else, for better or worse. And now we’re only one day away from the next round of campaign finance reports. In the words of Robert Earl Keen, the road goes on forever and the party never ends.