Congratulations to the Vermont Republican Party for scrounging up 21 more candidates for state House! That’s right, in a post-primary meeting, the state committee filled a bunch of vacancies on its ticket and brought its total number of House hopefuls to a seemingly respectable 96. VTGOP Chair Paul Dame boasted of an “excitement and energy” not seen in the party since 2014. Funny thing, he skipped over the election of Phil Scott two years later.

Problem is, when you get up close and examine the merchandise, you realize that pretty much all they’ve got is dead albatross.

Dame speaks hopefully of the additional candidates increasing the party’s chances of killing the Dem/Prog House supermajority. Trouble is, I looked over the list of 21 late adds, and only three of ’em have a measurable chance of winning in November.

Albatross!

Eighteen of the 21 are running in extremely safe Democratic territory. A few examples:

• The two-seat Addison 3 district, represented by Dem incumbents Diane Lanpher and Matt Birong. They easily defeated Republicans Rob North and James McClay in 2022. North is running again, and is now joined by late Republican add Joe Baker.
• Chittenden 6, where Dem Kate Lalley ran unopposed in 2022 and will now get the chance to beat late Republican add Deb Mayfield.
• Franklin 3, the St. Albans City district represented by Dem Mike McCarthy. He easily beat Republican Joe Luneau in 2022; now Luneau is trying again.
• Lamoille 3, where incumbent Dem Lucy Boyden won by a nearly 3-to-1 margin in 2022 and should have no problem beating Paul Sciortino.
• My own favorite: the two-seat Windsor 3. Dem incumbents Alice Emmons and Kristi Morris will run against the husband-and-wife team of Keith and Judy Stern. You may remember Keith from his ill-fated run against Gov. Phil Scott in the 2018 VTGOP primary; Judy ran in this House race in 2022 and got her ass kicked.

That’s what this list of newly-added Republicans is like. They’re running in deep blue districts, they’re getting an extremely late start, and they can expect little to no help from a state party bereft of resources. And if their hearts were really in it, why didn’t they start campaigning months ago and try to qualify for the primary ballot?

Now, let’s look at the three candidates who could actually win.

• Bennington-1, where Dem Nelson Brownell beat Republican Bruce Busa 50.4% to 49%. Brownell is retiring, and now Busa is back for another try. Normally I’d say his 2022 candidacy would have raised his profile with the voters, but that might not be a good thing for Busa. He’s an out-and-out extremist who took part in the January 6 insurrection and believes the violence was instigated by Antifa and Black Lives Matter. He also thinks climate change is a hoax, he’s a dyed-in-the-wool anti-vaxxer, and he was against the reproductive rights amendment because it might open the door to state-mandated abortions. Still, he’s got a shot.
• Caledonia-Essex, the two-seat St. Johnsbury district currently represented by Repub Scott Beck and Dem Scott Campbell. The former is running for Senate, while the latter is on the ballot with fellow Dem Frank Empsall. The VTGOP failed to identify a single candidate for this winnable district before the primary. Now they’ve nominated Deborah Dolgin, so at least they’ve got a chance at saving Beck’s seat.
• Chittenden 19, a two-seat district in Colchester currently repped by Dem Sarita Austin and Repub Pat Brennan. The latter is running for Senate. Austin is running alongside fellow Dem Wendy Critchlow. Leland Gazo was on the Republican primary ballot; he’s now been joined by Spencer Sherman. It’s possible, though unlikely, that the Repubs could add a seat in Chittenden 19 now that they have two candidates.

And that’s it. That’s all the value added by the 21 new candidates. And note that in two of the three cases, the Republicans have merely augmented their chances of holding serve, not reducing the supermajority.

May I remind that Dame assessed the springtime candidate recruitment effort as “disappointing” and acknowledged that it was “one of the smallest recruitment classes that we’ve had in the last 10 years.” By my reckoning, at least 35 of that number were doomed to failure because they were far-righters competing in safe Democratic districts or, in a couple of cases, they were in primary contests with fellow Republicans where only one winner could emerge.

But now they’ve added even more albatross!

Of the Republicans’ 96 House candidates, then, more than half are dead on arrival. Metaphorically speaking. This leaves the VTGOP with opportunities to eat into the House supermajority, but they’ll have to hold their 38 seats — which is far from a sure thing — then sweep the relative handful of competitive contests, AND pull off a few shocking upsets.

Now, every seat gained will make it harder for Democratic leadership to win override votes. But the odds are against the VTGOP making a meaningful dent in the supermajority, even with their post-primary additions. If this is what passes for “excitement and energy” in Republican circles, well, they’ve got a painfully low threshold.