Before Town Meeting Day, I was bracing myself for what could have been the most reactionary election in who knows how long. Conventional wisdom had it that Burlington Progressives would be punished for being “soft on crime,” and Vermont voters would revolt against rising property taxes by voting down school budgets.

As it turned out, none of that really happened. Sure, roughly one-third of school budgets lost. In a normal year, no more than a handful of budgets go down to defeat. But one-third doesn’t exactly constitute carnage. It definitely sends a message to state policymakers that something needs to be done, and if legislators are smart they’ll pass something significant before the session ends. What it says to me, in total, is that Vermont voters really like their schools and are willing to dig pretty deep to support public education, but their patience and resources are not unlimited.

In Burlington, meanwhile, the expected backlash to Progressive crime policy didn’t materialize. Councilor and Democratic mayoral nominee Joan Shannon, pictured above with Councilor Hannah King, who lost her bid for re-election and managed Shannon’s losing campaign), was seemingly on a glide path to the mayoralty after years of media drumbeating over CHAOS IN THE QUEEN CITY. But it turned out that voters weren’t there for an enforcement-heavy response to public safety concerns.

The campaign centered around the issue, but Mayor-elect Emma Mulvaney-Stanak promoted a comprehensive agenda that addressed the causes as well as the consequences of the public safety situation. Shannon emphasized boosting the police force (and ragging on the Progs for their 2020 vote to cut the BPD, and it might be time to retire that talking point).

The single biggest number on Tuesday was the turnout. 46.6% of Burlington voters cast ballots. Compare that to the last four mayoral contests: 38.8% in 2021, 32.6% in 2018, 25% in 2015, and 28.5% in 2012. What drove turnout so high? The presidential primary must have helped — although it sure didn’t in 2012, and it’s hard to tell how it might have influenced the city election. Were people coming out in force to vote for Nikki Haley and Mulvaney-Stanak? Seems unlikely. And there was little incentive for left-leaning voters to show up for an uninspiring Biden coronation.

If you leave the primary out of it, we did have two strong mayoral candidates and a heavy media focus on the election. Still, getting close to 50% turnout on Town Meeting Day is impressive. Perhaps unprecedented.

Mulvaney-Stanak’s candidacy clearly resonated with Burlington voters. She got 7,612 votes, close to 52% of the total. Even in a high-turnout year, she earned a healthy majority and avoided the uncertainty of the ranked-choice voting process.

You want to know how big 7,612 votes is? In his four victorious elections, Miro Weinberger’s highest vote total was 6,189. And that was the only time he managed to break the 6,000 threshold.

Shannon, who came nowhere near winning, outpolled Weinberger’s best showing by more than 500 votes. But Mulvaney-Stanak outran Max Tracy, who very nearly unseated Weinberger in 2021, by more than 1,500 votes. Shannon may have failed, but she didn’t embarrass herself by any means. She was beaten by a candidate with a great organization (the much-touted 300-strong volunteer army) and an agenda that appealed to the electorate.

In fact, Mulvaney-Stanak earned the support of several hundred Democratic voters. Shannon drew 6,696 votes, while the Democratic candidates for council combined for more than 7,300. (And one of those Dems, Ward 3’s Malik Mines, was a write-in candidate.)

The result provides more evidence of a substantial built-in advantage for the Progressive Party in Burlington. Weinberger won his last two races with pluralities, and may well have lost if he’d faced unified opposition in either campaign. He won big majorities against weak opposition in 2012 and 2015, but that was after the Progs’ last mayor, Bob Kiss, kinda drove the city into a ditch.

This time, the crime narrative was fueling Shannon’s bid and positioning Mulvaney-Stanak as out of touch with the fears of the electorate. If anything, it was Shannon who was out of touch. She brought a simplistic approach to crime concerns, and offered less than her opponent on any other issue.

Going into Election Day, she looked like the stronger candidate: A message for the times, a strong fundraising effort, and a lengthy track record in city politics. It sure didn’t work out that way.

We’ve now had three straight mayoral elections where the Democrat couldn’t win a majority, not even with the power of incumbency. Shannon raised a bucketload of money, she had the media narrative behind her, and she didn’t even come close to winning. What will it take for a Democrat to win in Burlington? The party has some pondering to do.