We seem to be approaching yellow journalism territory in press coverage of crime in Burlington. Exhibit A is a headline from the usually reliable Seven Days positing a “Chaotic Night of Crime” in the Queen City.

“Chaotic Night of Crime”? Two men fatally shot in a house in the Old North End. A man robbed of drugs and shot in the foot. A pathetic arson attempt at police headquarters. Three incidents.

It was a bad night. But it was not a “Chaotic Night of Crime.”

In that article, Police Chief (and veteran of the New York Police Department) Jon Murad asserts that he couldn’t “remember a night like this” during his time in the Bronx and Manhattan North.

I’m sorry, that’s not credible. Burlington has problems, but it ain’t the Bronx. Exaggerating the state of things is not helping. It’s just pouring fuel on the fire, if you’ll pardon the analogy.

I realize this post is going to be misinterpreted, but I’ll give it the old college try. I am not saying, not at all, that Burlington is a blissful paradise. There is crime. There is vandalism. There is opioid use, a hell of a lot of opioid use.

But what we have is less an actual crime wave than a perception that crime is out of control. And thanks to breathless press coverage, we’re in a feedback loop where every incident makes news which adds to the perception which turns crime coverage into irresistible clickbait and around and around we go.

Accompanying the crime coverage are stories implying that downtown Burlington is becoming a ghost town. Yes, a handful of merchants have decamped for one reason or another. There’s always quite a bit of turnover in brick-and-mortar retail and restaurants. But there is no stampede for the city limits. In fact, some of the vacancies have already been refilled by new businesses.

The crime coverage is generally short on actual numbers, because either the numbers aren’t current enough or they’re hard to interpret or they paint a mixed picture or they’re fundamentally unreliable* or they don’t support the narrative. Or all of the above.

*Crime statistics count only crimes that are officially reported with police. There is no way to accurately assess rates of actual crime.

But hey look, Channel 3 has some numbers: “So far in 2023, there have been two homicides and 14 gunfire incidents. Last year, there were five homicides and 26 gunfire incidents.”

So we’re on pace to have fewer homicides and gunfire incidents this year than last.

Now, last year’s numbers were significantly higher than the year before. But at that point you’re in the pandemic, when public activity of all sorts — legal and illegal — was artificially low.

Before then? I point you to a 2021 VTDigger piece, written at a time when Murad and Mayor Miro Weinberger were actively campaigning against Progressive efforts to cut the size of the BPD, that concluded “overall crime has been trending downward for years in Burlington, including violent crime specifically — such as homicides, robberies and assaults.”

And despite the recent increases in homicides and gun incidents, overall crime is down significantly from where it was several years ago. Here’s a chart prepared at the time by VTDigger’s data reporter Erin Petenko.

Some types of crime have increased since 2020. But overall, crime is still down from the levels of the early to mid 2010s. Including “violent activities.”

Again, I’m not saying that Burlington is absolutely safe, nor am I saying we shouldn’t try to make Burlington a better place to live. But the numbers paint, at worst, a mixed picture. They don’t support a claim that crime is out of control or has reached unheard-of levels.

As for that “chaotic night,” the two fatalities happened inside a house and likely involved the drug trade, and even Murad acknowledged that the shootings created no risk to the general public.

And one guy got shot in the foot during a drug-related holdup. It sucks, but it’s not chaos.

And a homeless man tried to set a fire in the entryway to One North Avenue that was extinguished by the sprinkler system and left (per a photo published in Seven Days) a small charred area on a wall. He didn’t have incendiaries or accelerants; his weapon was some pieces of paper.

Chaotic? Not even close.